When asked last month whether he planned to join Israel in a war against Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump responded: "I might do that. Or I might not. Nobody knows what I’ll do." After suggesting he agreed to a two-week truce to allow Iran to return to negotiations, he proceeded to bomb its nuclear sites.
اضافة اعلان
According to the BBC, a clear pattern has emerged: Trump’s most predictable trait is his unpredictability. He changes his mind frequently and often contradicts himself.
Peter Trubowitz, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, noted:
“Trump has built an extremely centralized policy-making process, arguably the most centralized—at least in foreign policy—since Richard Nixon.”
This means that decisions depend more on Trump’s personality, preferences, and mood than on institutional processes.
Trump has leveraged this unpredictability as a political asset, turning it into a core strategic and diplomatic tool. It now shapes the White House’s foreign and security policies and arguably is “reshaping the world.”
The “Madman Theory”
Political scientists refer to this approach as the Madman Theory: a global leader convinces adversaries that he's capable of anything, making them more likely to concede out of fear or uncertainty. When used effectively, it becomes a form of coercion, and Trump believes it works—especially with U.S. allies. But the question remains: does it work against enemies?
Attacks and Doubts
Trump’s second term began with embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin while attacking U.S. allies. He angered Canada by suggesting it become the 51st U.S. state, expressed interest in militarily annexing Greenland, and called for the U.S. to reclaim the Panama Canal.
Regarding NATO, Article 5 of its founding treaty obligates all members to defend one another. Trump has cast doubt on this commitment. Former UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace warned that “Article 5 is on the brink of collapse.”
Leaked text messages revealed a culture of contempt within Trump’s White House toward European allies. His running mate, J.D. Vance, declared that the U.S. will no longer guarantee Europe’s security.
This shift seems to mark the end of 80 years of transatlantic solidarity. Trubowitz remarked:
“Trump has sowed serious doubt about the credibility of America’s international commitments. Whether in security or trade, all relationships are now negotiable.”
He added that many of those surrounding Trump believe unpredictability is a strength:
“It gives Trump leverage to extract maximum advantage for America—just like he did in real estate.”
Flattery and Appeasement
This approach has had some success. Four months ago, the UK pledged to raise its defense spending to 2.5% of GDP (up from 2.3%), and last month, during a NATO summit, that figure was raised to 5%—a sharp increase that other NATO members have now committed to follow.
Julie Norman, Political Science Professor at University College London, observed:
“It’s very difficult to predict what will happen day to day—and that’s always been Trump’s style.”
He has successfully used his volatile personality to reshape transatlantic defense dynamics.
To maintain favor with Trump, some European leaders have resorted to flattery. During last month’s NATO summit in The Hague, Secretary General Mark Rutte told Trump:
“You will achieve something no president has in decades.”
Immunity of Adversaries
However, while the Madman Theory may work on allies, it appears ineffective against adversaries.
Putin, for instance, remains unmoved. After a recent phone call, Trump expressed disappointment at Putin’s refusal to end the war in Ukraine.
In the case of Iran, Trump promised to end America’s involvement in “forever wars” in the Middle East, yet bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities—a decision the BBC labeled the most volatile move of his second term so far. The key question: Will this achieve the desired outcome?
Former UK Foreign Secretary William Hague warned that it may do the opposite, increasing Iran’s drive to acquire nuclear weapons. Michael Desch, International Relations Professor at the University of Notre Dame, agreed:
“It’s now highly likely that Iran will decide to pursue nuclear weapons,”
suggesting that Trump’s approach may be counterproductive when dealing with hostile states.
— (Agencies)
