In the Middle East, wars rarely erupt all at once. They creep in quietly, shaped by fiery messages, calculated assassinations, or field maneuvers that each side believes are still “under control.” The recent assassination of one of Hezbollah’s most prominent military commanders, Haitham al-Tabtabai, is not an isolated event. It is a pivotal moment in a trajectory where smoke is thickening and the margin for miscalculation is widening.
اضافة اعلان
The Israeli entity appears today to be acting with excessive confidence, convinced it is at the peak of its regional power. It is managing the escalation track in Lebanon as if it were a theater whose rhythm can be controlled. Repeated airstrikes, sudden maneuvers, and heightened military alert along the northern border all signal a mindset that views the Lebanese arena as an “manageable margin,” not a front that could erupt at any moment.
But reading the mood inside Israel alone is insufficient. Hezbollah, despite its outward restraint, is not a passive observer. An assassination of this magnitude cannot simply be filed away as a tactical strike. What is happening on the ground suggests a dual dynamic—public rhetoric that projects calm, and an unseen motion behind the curtain that reorganizes preparedness and readies a response whose nature and timing remain undisclosed. This duality is not confusion; it is a strategy to maintain deterrence without sliding into an open war.
Then comes Iran, which declared the blood spilled “a right reserved for vengeance.” Its messages—clear, forceful, and uncompromising—are not merely solidarity with an ally. They signal that the assassination strikes at the core of an entire axis, and that Israel has crossed a red line that will not go unanswered. Yet Tehran knows that war is not a simple decision. Igniting the Lebanese front would reshape the regional equation and could lead to a direct clash with the United States.
Caught in the middle of this triangle—confident Israel, cautious Hezbollah, and angered Iran—Lebanon remains the weakest link: a country drowning in crisis, unable to withstand confrontation, lacking the luxury of another war. And yet, regional power calculations may push it toward a battle it neither wants nor is prepared for, one that its economic and social fabric cannot endure.
The central question remains: Will war break out?
In my view, a full-scale war is not a decision currently on the table for either Hezbollah or Israel. Both sides understand that an open confrontation would be catastrophic: Israel would face massive, untested rocket capabilities, while Hezbollah knows the Lebanese interior cannot survive a prolonged war. Yet the current trajectory contains the seeds of explosion. Gradual escalation, Israel’s rising confidence, Iran’s signals, and the increasing frequency of airstrikes—all of these are fuses awaiting a spark.
We stand today before a delicate equation: no one wants war, yet everyone behaves in a way that makes it possible. In the Middle East, wars are often not ignited by political will but by a miscalculation—or an underestimation of a critical moment.
War is not imminent, but it is not distant either. It stands at the edge, waiting for the first mistake. And in a region already on edge, one error is enough to write a new chapter of fire.
