Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the time Iran needs to produce a nuclear weapon has remained unchanged since last summer, when analysts estimated that a joint U.S.-Israeli attack delayed the timeline by up to a year.
اضافة اعلان
Unchanged Timelines Despite Recent Conflict
The assessments regarding Tehran's nuclear program remain largely unchanged, even two months after the outbreak of the war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump, which aimed—among other goals—to prevent the Islamic Republic from building a nuclear bomb.
While the current conflict (which began on February 28) focused primarily on conventional military targets, Israel did strike several critical nuclear facilities. The stagnant timeline suggests that significantly disrupting Tehran's nuclear ambitions may require the destruction or removal of its remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Current Diplomatic and Regional Context
Ceasefire: The war has been paused since a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran took effect on April 7.
Tensions at Sea: Tensions remain high as Iran has throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking approximately 20% of global oil supplies and igniting an energy crisis.
Negotiations: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the U.S. aims to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon through ongoing negotiations.
Historical Assessment Milestones
Pre-June 2025: U.S. agencies concluded Iran could produce enough uranium for a bomb within three to six months.
Post-June 2025 ("Operation Midnight Hammer"): Following U.S. strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, the timeline was pushed back to between nine months and one year.
The Uranium Stockpile: While three enrichment facilities were heavily damaged in previous attacks, the IAEA has been unable to verify the location of approximately 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium. The agency estimates the total stockpile of highly enriched uranium is sufficient to create 10 nuclear bombs if enriched further.
White House Position
White House Spokesperson Olivia Wells referenced the two recent military operations:
Operation Midnight Hammer (June 2025): Destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities.
Operation Odyssey Rage (February 2026): Targeted the defense industrial base Iran used as a shield for its nuclear pursuits.
Wells reiterated President Trump’s long-standing position: "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon." This was echoed by Vice President J.D. Vance, who posted on "X" on March 2 that the goal of the operation is to ensure Iran is never permitted to acquire such weaponry.
Strategic Focus
Sources indicate the stagnant timeline reflects the specific focus of the latest military campaign. While Israel struck a uranium processing facility in late March, U.S. strikes prioritized conventional military capabilities, Iranian leadership, and the military-industrial base.
Iran continues to deny seeking nuclear weapons, maintaining that its program is for peaceful purposes.
