The third round of indirect talks between Iran and the United States is set to convene Thursday in Switzerland. These negotiations aim to reach a deal that averts the specter of war and ends weeks of escalating threats. The Geneva talks come at a critical juncture, with both sides expressing openness to dialogue since January while simultaneously signaling readiness for military action, leaving all possibilities on the table.
اضافة اعلان
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been bolstering the military presence in the region, stated his preference for a diplomatic solution but accused Tehran of pursuing "evil" nuclear ambitions. In his State of the Union address, Trump remarked: "We are in negotiations with them, and they want to make a deal, but we haven't heard those secret words from them: 'We will never have a nuclear weapon.'"
The U.S. President further noted that Iran has "already designed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases abroad, and they are working on building missiles that will soon be capable of reaching the United States."
Conflicting Claims over Missile Capabilities
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei dismissed these claims as "major lies" in a post on X. Tehran maintains it possesses a vast arsenal of domestically produced ballistic missiles, notably the Shahab-3, which has a range of 2,000 kilometers—capable of reaching Israel and Eastern Europe. However, estimates from the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) suggest the maximum range of these missiles is approximately 3,000 kilometers, less than a third of the distance to the U.S. mainland.
The core dispute revolves around Iran's nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at developing a nuclear bomb—a claim Tehran denies, insisting the program is purely peaceful. Washington is now pushing to include Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for regional proxies in any potential agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to negotiate its missile program remains a "very big problem."
Diplomatic Efforts vs. Military Escalation
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Geneva on Wednesday, meeting with his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Araghchi described the potential for an agreement as a "historic opportunity." Similarly, President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed hope for a "promising horizon" to move past the state of "no-war, no-peace."
The U.S. delegation includes Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. These talks follow a previous breakdown in diplomacy caused by a 12-day military conflict in June 2025, during which Washington participated in strikes against nuclear sites.
Analysis: Regional Consequences of Potential Conflict
Experts remain wary of the current climate. Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) noted that while regional actors tried to dissuade the U.S. from striking Iran in January, there is a "deep apprehension" that any upcoming conflict would be far larger in scale than the June 2025 escalations.
Speaking on the "Sawt al-Mamlaka" program, Professor of Political Theory Mohammad Abu Rumman warned that a war on Iran could lead to an "explosive regional bloodbath." He argued that:
The fall of the Iranian regime would not necessarily lead to a stable alternative.
Iran’s regional influence has significantly waned in recent years, with its "regional claws clipped."
Hezbollah may not intervene in the event of "limited" U.S. strikes, but targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains a "red line" that would shift the rules of engagement.
Abu Rumman concluded that while Vice President J.D. Vance reaffirms Trump’s preference for diplomacy, the region remains days away from a potential military confrontation, driven largely by Israeli strategic calculations rather than direct U.S. interests.
