UN Report: Inflation in Jordan remains low despite escalating regional uncertainty.
A United Nations report projects that Jordan will achieve economic growth of 2.8% for the current and upcoming years. Inflation is expected to remain at low levels, despite a regional environment characterized by escalating geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
اضافة اعلان
According to the report issued by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), uncertainty intensified following the conflict between Israel and Iran last year. This significantly impacted air transport and damaged Jordan’s tourism sector, compounded by the repercussions of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.
Conversely, the report noted that the regime change in Syria has improved market sentiment in the region, a development from which Jordan is likely to benefit.
Key Economic Indicators for Jordan:
Inflation: Projected to remain low at 2.4% this year and 1.8% next year.
Public Debt: Expected to reach approximately 95.6% of GDP, limiting fiscal flexibility and growth potential.
Exports: Forecasted to grow by 4.8% this year and 6.5% next year (up from 3.8% last year).
Imports: Projected growth of 2.8% this year and 3.5% next year.
The report, titled "Macroeconomic Prospects in the Arab Region," suggests Jordan will benefit from the return of refugees to Syria, easing the pressure on government service delivery. However, Jordan’s trade ties with the United States make it vulnerable to increased tariffs. Since Jordan directs nearly 25% of its total exports to the U.S. (primarily textiles, fertilizers, and chemicals), it may be the most affected by new trade barriers.
Regional Growth and Global Context
On a regional level, ESCWA anticipates a gradual Arab economic recovery. The regional growth rate is expected to rise from 2.9% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026. Regional inflation is projected to drop from 8.2% in 2025 to 5.4% by 2027, driven by lower commodity prices and the normalization of supply chains.
Acting Executive Secretary of ESCWA, Mounir Tabet (or Mourad Wahba as per text), stated that economic improvement is rooted in diversification efforts, particularly in high-income countries, and the implementation of fiscal reforms. He warned, however, that the region remains "highly vulnerable to external imbalances," citing global tariff uncertainties and regional trade disruptions.
The Gaza Reconstruction Crisis
The report also highlighted the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, estimating that reconstruction costs could reach $70 billion, given that approximately 78% of buildings have been destroyed alongside a massive loss of life.
