It seems that every time fuel prices rise, it is not merely a number added to a bill, but a chain reaction that extends into every detail of life—from transportation costs to commodity prices, and even the public mood.
اضافة اعلان
Today, with escalating regional tensions and frequent talk of potential disruptions in energy supplies, we face a more sensitive phase. The price hikes may not be temporary as we have grown accustomed to, but rather prolonged and possibly escalatory.
The most realistic scenario is not a single sudden jump, but successive waves of increases. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, the mere threat of instability is enough to keep oil prices in a state of permanent tension. This means import costs will remain high, and returning to previous price levels will be neither easy nor imminent.
More dangerously, the impact of fuel prices does not stop at the pump. Every increase seeps into the entire basket of goods. As these hikes repeat, the effect becomes cumulative. What was bearable once becomes a heavy burden when repeated, and this is where the citizen begins to feel that while income remains stagnant, everything else is moving upward.
Prime Minister Jafar Hassan and his economic team have opted for a path of "smart shock management" rather than direct confrontation. The gradual increase in fuel prices is a credit to them in terms of avoiding sharp repercussions; it is a more mature approach compared to previous policies that reflected global prices immediately and without preparation. However, in my view, this approach—despite its importance—is not enough on its own to exit the crisis.
The fundamental question today is: Are we looking at an exit plan, or just ongoing crisis management? So far, what is visible is calculated management, but what remains unclear is the "endpoint." When will the increases stop? What are the ceilings that will not be crossed? And how will the impact on the citizen be compensated?
There is a pressing need for more than just monthly decisions. We need a clear government narrative—perhaps in the form of a candid press conference—that puts the figures on the table, explains the pricing mechanism, defines potential scenarios, and reveals the protection tools that will be used if pressures persist. Transparency at this stage is not a luxury; it is a necessity to contain public unrest and prevent the "inflation of anxiety" before the inflation of prices.
The public does not reject economic measures as much as it rejects ambiguity. When people feel there is a clear plan—even a difficult one—their capacity for endurance increases. However, when decisions are fragmented and unexplained, every hike, no matter how small, is interpreted as the beginning of something worse.
In my opinion, the government is facing a true test today—not only in its ability to manage costs but in its ability to build trust. If it continues its clear economic approach and adds genuine containment and protection tools, it may navigate this stage with minimal damage. However, if the treatment remains confined to "smart hikes" without sufficient social and media accompaniment, pressure will accumulate—not just in prices, but in the street as well.
Ultimately, this is not just a fuel crisis; it is a crisis of expectations. The successful government is the one that manages people's expectations, not just the numbers, before the crises begin to manage the people.
