The guns will fall silent in the region sooner or later. But when they do, theocracy in Tehran is unlikely to simply implode, despite fervent hopes to the contrary.
اضافة اعلان
More probable is a protracted twilight for the Iranian regime and its proxies across Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen—weakened, battered by sustained American pressure, and left to stagger under the growing weight of internal dissent. And it is from such a twilight that a new strategic architecture may emerge: a moderate Sunni axis, likely drawing in Egypt, Turkey, the Gulf states, Jordan, and a post-war Syria.
Bolstered by unprecedented American backing, such a bloc would set out to decisively contain—and perhaps even precipitate the end of—the Shia Crescent, forging a powerful Sunni-American partnership at its core.
For Washington, the dividends of such a realignment would be immense. In a grand geopolitical bargain, American support for a Palestinian state could be exchanged for a flood of regional investment, with US corporations enjoying privileged access. More strategically, it would serve to hem in China's economic ambitions in the Middle East and grant Washington renewed leverage over a dependent European Union—cementing, for a while longer, the architecture of American global primacy.
It is a scenario that would undoubtedly please American ears. Yet it could be undone in a flash by the government in Tel Aviv. So long as Israeli leadership remains captive to a radical, right-wing vision of a "Greater Israel," rooted in a particular brand of Talmudic ultranationalism, the prospect of sabotage is real. This is precisely why engaging Israeli public opinion—and steering its politics toward a pragmatic government capable of thinking in terms of geopolitical reality rather than religious prophecy—is so vital. As the Arab world prepares to navigate its next moves with President Donald Trump, it is a lesson that must not be lost.
For the Arab states, especially the Sunni powers, containing Iran will remain the overriding priority. The unprecedented Iranian strikes on Gulf capitals during the current war have only seared such a lesson deeper. Expect the Gulf states to further accelerate the build-up of their military deterrent in the coming period, with Cairo, Amman, and Ankara likely to play an increasingly supportive role in safeguarding regional security.
Trump, at the end of the day, is a transactionalist. That instinct will guide his approach. And with a subdued Tehran, a window is opening for the Arab states to negotiate with Washington from a position of collective strength to protect their own interests—provided, and it is crucial, they speak with one voice.
The war will end, but it will only give way to a new, more volatile chapter: a contest for power, for influence, for the very contours of a new Middle East. The enduring question is, will the Arabs be architects of such a new order, or will they once again find themselves cast as extras on a stage where others write the script?!
Let's wait and see.
