China’s export growth slowed in March as buyers pursuing an AI-driven future collided with the reality of the war in the Middle East, which has triggered an energy crisis and disrupted Beijing’s efforts to sustain economic growth.
اضافة اعلان
Customs data released on Tuesday showed that exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose by 2.5% year-on-year—the weakest pace in five months—down sharply from a 21.8% surge recorded in January–February. The figure also fell well below Reuters’ forecast of 8.3% growth.
Imports, on the other hand, jumped 27.8%, marking their strongest performance since November 2021, compared to a 19.8% increase in the first two months of the year and expectations of 11.2% growth.
March represents the first real test of whether strong demand for artificial intelligence—along with chips and servers—can offset the uncertainty caused by the global energy shock following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows.
China’s natural gas imports fell by 10.7% year-on-year in March, reaching their lowest level since October 2022, while crude oil imports declined by 2.8%, with Chinese vessels also halting transit through the strait.
China had entered 2026 on a strong footing, with exports—particularly in the technology sector—exceeding expectations and raising the likelihood of surpassing last year’s record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. However, the war with Iran has cast uncertainty over this trajectory.
Still, Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, said Chinese manufacturers could gain further momentum as global buyers look for more cost-effective options. He added that long-term stockpiling of raw materials has helped cushion the impact of supply shocks on factory prices.
Reuters
