No party has achieved a clear victory in the Middle East war after nearly four months during which Iran was weakened, yet managed to thwart the objectives of the United States and Israel, according to experts.
اضافة اعلان
The agreement between Washington and Tehran postpones thorny issues and keeps Israel on the sidelines, paving the way for 60 days of stormy negotiations following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the two countries on Friday in Switzerland.
Below is an overview of the positions of the main parties involved:
Iran: "The Only Real Winner"
Iran emerges from its latest conflict with the United States and Israel militarily and economically weaker, having dealt severe blows; Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war on February 28, and his successor and son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not yet appeared publicly.
While US-Israeli strikes continued to eliminate prominent figures, the ruling establishment remained cohesive and retains significant leverage ahead of negotiations with the United States.
"Strategically and geopolitically, the only real winner at this stage is Iran," Ross Harrison, a researcher at the Middle East Institute and author of Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy, told AFP.
However, he added, "It is a high-cost victory," meaning that "Iran won by preventing its adversaries... from achieving their war aims," but it paid a "very heavy" price.
Washington and Tel Aviv wanted to pave the way for the overthrow of the Iranian regime, put an end to its nuclear ambitions, and destroy its ballistic capabilities.
Despite the change at the top of the pyramid of power in Iran, Tehran achieved its war aim of "survival and re-establishing deterrence," according to Harrison.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the British think tank RUSI, believes that Tehran's demonstration of its ability to choke the vital Strait of Hormuz to pressure its adversaries "will continue to cast a shadow over regional security."
"Tehran will exploit this vulnerability to extract maximum concessions while dragging out negotiations — which is a failure for Washington," she said.
Iran agreed to reopen the strait while the United States lifts the blockade imposed on its ports, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that the country would impose a transit fee under a last-minute clause.
Under the agreement, Iran is also expected to recover billions of dollars in frozen assets and receive a suspension of oil sanctions, while the critical nuclear issue remains unresolved.
Amir Handjani from the Quincy Institute in the United States noted that Tehran is "getting a lot of things that were out of reach before the war. So by that standard, Iran could be considered to have won." However, he pointed out that in wartime, "it is only a matter of degrees measuring who lost more."
"The Limits of American Power"
Trump welcomed the highly anticipated agreement as a victory on his 80th birthday, saying, "Let the oil flow."
The US President confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies passed before the war, will be fully open starting Friday.
Surging energy prices have put Americans under pressure ahead of the November midterm elections, which are crucial for Trump's Republican Party to maintain control of Congress.
Bernard Hourcade, an Iran specialist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), argued that "this may be a media victory, but it is not a political victory" for the United States.
He considered that this war "showed that military force does not work" and that the United States "lost credibility" on the international stage.
Ozcelik added: "Washington's competitors – from Moscow to Beijing – will study this conflict for what it revealed about the limits of American power, and about the way it makes decisions and manages its alliances."
"These lessons will shape future crises far beyond the Middle East," she added.
The agreement leaves the crucial issue of Iran's nuclear program open to negotiations spanning 60 days.
Trump, who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term, reiterated that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon, a goal Tehran has always denied seeking.
Israel: "The Biggest Loser"
Postponing a decision on the nuclear issue is a major setback for Israel, which emerges from the conflict as the "biggest loser," according to Handjani.
Israel has lost momentum in its relations with the Gulf states, and its ability to influence its main ally, the United States, has diminished.
Israeli figures from various political spectrums rushed to condemn the agreement, stressing that it would not guarantee their country's security.
As for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is about to face an election, he is being sharply criticized for failing to achieve the war's objectives.
He is facing criticism from Trump, who described him as a "very difficult man," criticizing strikes carried out by Israel in Lebanon that threatened to blow up the negotiations.
The agreement stipulates an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, but it leaves several issues unresolved in Lebanon, foremost among them Tehran's support for the group.
Ross Harrison warned that this theater of conflict could be the "main obstacle" in the upcoming rounds of negotiations.
AFP
