Signs indicate that the United States may be close to carrying out a military strike against Iran in the coming days, following last-minute failures to reach an agreement with Tehran. While the likely targets of any U.S. action are fairly predictable, the outcomes remain highly uncertain, spanning scenarios from the least to the most severe.
اضافة اعلان
1. Limited Strikes
The first scenario envisions precise, limited strikes by U.S. air and naval forces targeting Iranian military sites, including Revolutionary Guard bases, the Basij paramilitary units, missile storage and launch sites, and nuclear-related facilities. This approach assumes that the attack could lead to the collapse of the regime and eventual transition to a democratic government—though experts consider this highly optimistic given past Western interventions in the region.
2. Regime Endures
In this scenario, the Iranian regime survives the strike but is forced to adjust its policies. However, this is considered unlikely, as the Islamic Republic’s leadership has maintained a firm stance against change for 47 years.
3. Military Rule
A more probable outcome, according to analysts, is the collapse of the current regime and its replacement by a strict military government. Past protests failed due to a lack of major defections within the ruling institutions. A power vacuum after U.S. strikes could enable the Revolutionary Guard to establish a new form of authority.
4. Iranian Military Response
Iran has vowed to retaliate against any U.S. attack. While its air and naval capabilities are inferior to those of the U.S., it possesses a substantial arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are stored in caves, underground facilities, or remote mountainous areas. Iran could target vital infrastructure in neighboring countries considered complicit in any U.S. action.
5. Strait of Hormuz Threats
Iran could deploy naval mines in the Gulf, a tactic previously used during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988). The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is a critical global trade route, carrying about 20% of liquefied natural gas exports and 20–25% of oil and its derivatives worldwide. Any mining activity would directly impact global trade and energy prices.
6. Naval Attack
Another scenario involves Iran attempting to sink a U.S. warship, raising major concerns among American military leaders. This could involve a “swarm” attack, using large numbers of explosive drones and fast torpedo boats simultaneously. The Revolutionary Guard Navy has long focused on asymmetric naval warfare to counter the technological superiority of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Sinking a U.S. vessel and potentially capturing survivors would be a severe blow to U.S. prestige.
7. Endless War / Chaos
The final and most severe scenario involves the collapse of the Iranian regime and the onset of chaos, potentially sparking a civil war similar to conflicts in Syria, Yemen, or Libya. Ethnic groups such as Kurds, Baloch, and other minorities might attempt to secure territories amid a power vacuum. While some regional actors, including Israel, might welcome the end of the Islamic Republic, no one wants a country of 93 million to descend into prolonged disorder.
The greatest danger remains a U.S. strike following the mobilization of large forces near Iran’s borders, driven by concerns over credibility, which could trigger a long, open-ended conflict with unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences.
