American columnist Thomas Friedman argues, in an op-ed published by The New York Times, that the US-Iran war revealed a profound shift in the global nature of military power: small states and non-state actors are now capable of inflicting major damage on far stronger and larger adversaries through precision missiles, drones, intelligence, and low-cost technology.
اضافة اعلان
Friedman believes this transition is not limited to Iran, but is also evident in the wars involving Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
He terms this transformation "the new physics of war," explaining that today a small entity can act as a major power with high precision and low cost. Conversely, a major power can also execute small, precise strikes, but at a significantly higher cost due to its reliance on massive legacy military systems.
Growing Danger
From his perspective, the balance of military advantage currently favors the smaller party—a trend becoming increasingly dangerous with the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence. Friedman cites the war with Iran to illustrate his thesis.
Following the launch of the air campaign against Iran, US President Donald Trump announced that the war was over and the United States had won. However, as Friedman notes, Tehran had a plan for the day after. It utilized its cheap, precision weaponry to pressure the United States, placing the Strait of Hormuz at the center of negotiations despite its military being vastly smaller than the US military and having suffered severe strikes.
The columnist points out that decades of economic sanctions did not prevent Iran from developing an arsenal of relatively low-cost missiles and drones, enabling it to inflict damage on US and Israeli forces.
Prominent Examples
Among the most prominent examples cited by Friedman, Iranian missiles and drones destroyed a significant portion of the primary US supply base in Bahrain during the early days of the war, forcing Washington to rely more heavily on the Diego Garcia base thousands of kilometers away.
Friedman also highlights another incident involving the destruction of an advanced radar unit belonging to an American THAAD system in the region. Quoting military experts, he notes that modern missiles no longer rely solely on predictable trajectories; some can maneuver in-flight and alter directions, making interception far more challenging.
Information versus Mass
Friedman quotes John Arquilla, professor emeritus at the US Naval Postgraduate School, who notes that wars were historically decided by "mass and energy"—where distance reduced weapon accuracy, requiring armies to field more force and energy. Today, according to Arquilla, wars are decided by information.
This shift is clearly demonstrated in Ukraine's experience, where drone boats and low-cost weaponry pushed the traditional Russian fleet away from its coastline. Similarly, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran have demonstrated how smaller forces can deal heavy blows to militarily superior adversaries.
Friedman observes that the small actor's new advantage lies in the fact that it does not need to achieve total victory; it merely needs to avoid losing. A major power, by contrast, must achieve victory, end the war, and return home—making a prolonged conflict far more costly for it.
A Warning from the Other Side
However, the writer simultaneously cautions about the flip side of the equation: major powers can also "act small" using precise intelligence. He points to Israeli strikes that eliminated dozens of Iranian commanders at once, the pager explosions targeting Hezbollah operatives, and the Stuxnet cyberattack that disrupted Iranian centrifuges.
Friedman concludes with a broader warning: the danger is no longer confined to states and armies. With the proliferation of artificial intelligence, a single individual—even a teenager with a laptop, internet connection, and an accessible AI model—could exploit vulnerabilities in legacy systems to shut down vital infrastructure like water and electricity networks.
Thus, Friedman views the world as entering a new era where power is measured not solely by numbers of troops, aircraft, and aircraft carriers, but by the ability to harness information and swiftly translate it into precise, low-cost impact. This "new physics of power" may render traditional military superiority far less guaranteed than it was in the past. – (Al Jazeera Net)
