AMMAN — Energy sector experts believe that Jordan's electrical grid can continue generating power without interruptions in the coming period. However, they emphasize that the primary challenge lies in the surging generation costs and their economic repercussions amidst current regional developments.
اضافة اعلان
Experts noted that while there is a state of "temporary security," this should not preclude medium- and long-term expansion in enhancing domestic energy security. This includes scaling up renewable energy, electrical storage, green hydrogen, and oil shale to reduce reliance on imports.
This comes in light of the cessation of Israeli gas supplies to Jordan since the onset of the military conflict involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel on February 28. Consequently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) has activated its previously approved emergency plan.
Jordan is utilizing available alternatives to Israeli gas, such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) in the Port of Aqaba, which receives LNG shipments from global markets. Alternatives also include operating some power plants on heavy fuel oil and diesel to cover part of the loads, particularly during peak hours.
Jordan previously relied on natural gas imported from the Israeli occupation to produce 60% of the Kingdom's electricity, which has now completely ceased. The remaining 40% is sourced from other origins such as oil shale and renewable energy.
Geopolitical Sensitivity
In this regard, former Director General of NEPCO, Eng. Abdel Fattah Daradkeh, stated: "The accelerating military escalation in the region raises increasing questions about the Jordanian electrical system's ability to withstand potential disruptions in fuel supplies." He explained that this concern grows as the Kingdom relies heavily on imported fuel, making the electricity sector sensitive to geopolitical developments that might affect energy flows.
Daradkeh pointed out that Jordan relies on imported fuel for over 60% of its generation. The disruption of supplies from certain sources has brought the issue of energy security and the necessity of activating alternatives back to the forefront. He noted that the strategic reserve of petroleum products at power plants is sufficient for at least one week, with the possibility of replenishment from the Jordan Jordan Oil Terminals Company (JOTC), which holds reserves capable of meeting the Kingdom's needs for up to two months.
Diversification of the Energy Mix
Daradkeh highlighted that diversifying energy sources has mitigated risks. Oil shale now contributes approximately 16% of total generation, while renewable energy (solar and wind) has risen to about 27%. This diversity helped reduce reliance on imported fuel from 97% in 2011 to approximately 60% today.
The Financial Challenge
On his part, former Director General of NEPCO, Dr. Ahmad Hiyasat, stated: "The challenge is not about the technical ability to supply electricity, but rather the high cost of available alternatives." He noted that while blackouts are not expected, the critical question is how to cover the high generation costs and whether the government will absorb them or reflect them in electricity tariffs.
Hiyasat added that switching to diesel—which has seen price hikes due to rising global oil prices—and utilizing fuel oil at the Aqaba Thermal Power Station are viable but expensive options.
Operational and Economic Pressures
Energy expert Dr. Firas Balasmeh warned that the greatest danger is the erosion of the system's economic and operational viability during a prolonged conflict. He pointed to statements by the Minister of Energy indicating that switching from gas to diesel costs NEPCO approximately 1.8 million JOD per day.
Balasmeh categorized the technical challenges into three pressures:
Fuel Security: Ensuring the continuity of supply chains.
Operational Flexibility: Balancing the grid, especially with the high share of intermittent renewables, which requires rapid-response generation or storage.
Financial Impact: High daily costs affect the national budget and long-term infrastructure investment.
