With the near-certain collapse of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne’s government on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron faces yet again a complex political challenge: finding the fifth prime minister since his re-election in May 2022.
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France is experiencing an unprecedented period of political instability under the Fifth Republic, established in 1958, particularly following Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024 after a sweeping victory by the far-right in the European elections.
Early legislative elections that followed resulted in three blocs without a clear majority—a leftist coalition, a center-right alliance, and a far-right bloc—making any government coalition extremely fragile.
The prime minister requested a confidence vote for her government based on the 2026 budget project, which proposes a $44 billion spending adjustment and the cancellation of two public holidays to address the country’s growing debt, which stands at 114 percent of GDP.
Both the left and the far-right announced they would vote against the budget, making the government’s fall inevitable and opening the door to a new phase of political uncertainty in the European Union’s second-largest economy.
A New Government: Elections or Resignation?
Far-right National Rally officials have called for a “very quick” dissolution of the National Assembly. Recent polls indicate that the National Rally could lead the first round of a potential election.
Macron has addressed this possibility, stating he does not want to pursue it, though he has not formally ruled it out. Meanwhile, the far-left party La France Insoumise is calling for Macron’s resignation.
Matthieu Gallard of the Ipsos Institute believes that dissolving parliament “will likely not change the outcome,” noting that recent polls show the balance of power remains largely unchanged from 2024.
A poll released Thursday showed that 64 percent of French citizens want an early presidential election. However, Macron confirmed at the end of August that he intends to serve his term until 2027. His preferred option remains appointing a new prime minister.
A Government, but With Whom?
The Socialist Party, with 66 deputies, has been the most willing to propose an alternative, including a budget plan that would cut $22 billion, primarily funded by a 2 percent tax on fortunes exceeding €100 million and suspending the 2023 pension reforms. However, securing majority support for this program would be difficult.
This option risks alienating The Republicans (49 deputies), the Horizons party led by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (center-right, 34 deputies), and even the Democratic Movement (MoDem) led by Élisabeth Borne (center, 36 deputies).
On the left, La France Insoumise (71 deputies), an ally of the Socialists in last year’s elections, denounces what it calls a “badly cooked plan” that would lead the Socialists to govern alongside Macron’s circles.
The solution may lie in appointing a prime minister who does not belong to the Socialist Party but is acceptable to a broad range of parties, from center-right to Socialist.
Bruno Cautrès, a political expert at Ifop, notes that no bloc currently holds the electoral legitimacy to carry out wide-ranging reforms similar to those Borne sought. He suggests a solution might involve “calming the situation, discussing public finances broadly in 2027, and finding a figure that signals reassurance to financial markets and the country,” citing potential candidates such as National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet or Economy Minister Éric Lombard.
Have the French Lost Their Illusions?
This new political crisis comes amid widespread skepticism about politicians’ effectiveness, with 90 percent of French citizens expressing doubts in a recent poll.
Adding to the tension, a social media call has been circulating since summer, urging a nationwide shutdown on September 10. This mobilization includes unaffiliated groups, often left-leaning activists like the “Yellow Vests,” members of political parties like La France Insoumise, and unions such as the General Confederation of Labor, which has called for a strike.
On September 18, all major unions have called for strikes and demonstrations. If successful, these protests could pressure government deliberations, potentially weakening the president and pushing left-wing parties and the National Rally toward political posturing, according to Matthieu Gallard.
— (Agencies)
