Energy experts are urging the government to adopt a clearly defined national plan to secure Jordan's energy supply through the coming winter, one that accounts for every scenario tied to current regional instability and includes alternatives to the international sources the Kingdom depends on.
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The experts stressed the need to expand reliance on domestic energy sources, noting that supply security featured among recent royal directives as the government moves to build up its reserves.
Economist Munir Diyeh said winter poses a global challenge for energy supply, a challenge sharpened recently by the war between Russia and Ukraine and the continuing impact of conflict in the Middle East on global energy flows.
Diyeh said Jordan must confront this challenge domestically, with clear preparations to keep reserves at maximum safe levels and to diversify supply across multiple sources, both local and foreign. He said oil and gas imports from international sources need to be diversified, with continuity of access guaranteed, and called for sustained efforts to keep Iraqi crude flowing as a backup should any disruption hit Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port. Diyeh added that natural gas imports must also remain part of Jordan's supply mix.
Diyeh said the government's planning should include expanding natural gas production from the Risha field, drilling additional wells, and accelerating output growth there, alongside greater use of solar power for domestic electricity generation and broader adoption of solar and other renewable energy sources.
Energy expert Hashem Aql said Jordan is in a relatively better position than its neighbors when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, since a significant share of the Kingdom's supply chain does not depend directly on the strait, particularly the crude that arrives from Saudi Arabia via the Red Sea. Aql said the real risk lies instead in refined product prices, shipping costs, and the global availability of refined fuels, all of which matter significantly heading into winter. Aql said Saudi Arabia is the main supplier of crude to Jordan's refining system.
According to 2024 data from JoPetrol, Saudi crude accounted for roughly 74 percent of Jordan's total crude oil imports, against about 26 percent from Iraq.
He said JoPetrol reported in 2026 that Jordan imports around one million barrels of Saudi crude per month, with two shipments arriving in March to reinforce reserves. Aql said the more important point is that this crude arrives through Yanbu port on the Red Sea, meaning it does not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic advantage for Jordan.
On liquefied petroleum gas, Aql said Saudi Arabia and domestic production serve as the two main sources, calling this one of the most important points to highlight since Jordan does not rely on a single source for household gas. Part of the country's LPG needs are produced domestically through refining operations, he said, while the remainder is imported from Saudi Aramco via Yanbu port.
According to the Ministry of Energy, Jordan imports an average of four to six LPG shipments per month, with one recent shipment arriving in Aqaba carrying roughly 12,000 tonnes. Aql said this makes LPG one of the products Jordan can secure relatively reliably during a Hormuz-related crisis, provided reserves and shipment schedules are maintained.
On finished petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline and kerosene, Aql said the Jordan Petroleum Refinery can process crude into a wide range of derivatives, including LPG, both grades of gasoline (90 and 95 octane), kerosene, diesel and fuel oil, with current maximum refining capacity at around five million tonnes of crude annually. He noted that Jordan does not rely solely on domestic refining, since finished products are also imported through tenders and marketing companies.
According to JoPetrol's 2024 report, the company imported the entirety of its diesel, gasoline and LPG needs that year. Aql said the Jordan Petroleum Refinery announced in April that available LPG stock was sufficient for about two months, and that stockpiles of refined products covered requirements under approved standards, with no need at the time to draw on the government's strategic reserve.He said Jordan also maintains substantial strategic storage infrastructure, including storage facilities in Aqaba.
According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jordan's strategic reserves cover 45 days of crude oil at a volume of 305,700 tonnes, 30 days of LPG at 53,500 tonnes, 58 days of 90-octane gasoline at 203,200 tonnes, 76 days of 95-octane gasoline at 30,400 tonnes, 67 days of diesel at 267,500 tonnes, 58 days of kerosene at 58,200 tonnes, and 75 days of jet fuel at 82,300 tonnes.
Energy researcher Amer Shobaki said energy supply security represents a major concern for decision-makers in Jordan and features among recent royal directives, as the government works to increase reserves to strengthen both energy and food security.
Shobaki said Jordan imports the entirety of its oil and petroleum product needs, leaving the Kingdom to face winter amid regional conditions marked by uncertainty and a state of "neither peace nor war," with all scenarios remaining open and requiring preparation for the worst possible outcomes.
He said a renewed outbreak of war, an Israeli move to shut off gas fields supplying Jordan, or the closure of pipelines through which Jordan imports its gas needs, would expose the Kingdom to a future energy crisis. Shobaki described this as the most severe scenario, one that could force Jordan to rely on internal reserves and gas imports via the floating import terminal in Aqaba, depending on the severity of the disruption, particularly if regional energy facilities also come under attack.
Shobaki said fuel stockpiling should be treated as a priority to prepare for any scenario, pointing to the need for reserves of fuel used in electricity generation, whether gas or fuel oil in worst-case conditions, alongside increased stocks of refined products and crude oil. He noted that Jordan currently holds no crude oil reserves of its own, after the state converted its oil stockpiles into refined petroleum products.
On LPG, Shobaki said the global liquefied gas shortage remains ongoing, reinforcing the case for expanding domestic LPG storage to withstand any crisis and strengthening the role of the Jordan Petroleum Refinery in producing enough gas to meet the country's needs without resorting to imports, particularly through the winter.
On prices, Shobaki forecast that global prices will remain elevated and could climb further, driven by rising crude prices and higher costs for refined products amid a global decline in refining capacity. He said crude oil prices no longer fully reflect the real increases in refined product prices.
He pointed to a historic rise in diesel prices, saying these elevated costs must be addressed. Even if the government decides to freeze prices at current levels, he said, they will remain high, which calls for targeted subsidies or support programs for low-income households and residents of colder regions who will face higher energy bills.
