BERLIN/PARIS — Only a few weeks ago, many
European countries were hoping their more affluent citizens would by now have
started spending nest eggs built up during the pandemic to trigger a
consumer-led recovery in the region's economy.
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But with the spread of COVID-19 prompting new
lockdowns across the continent and vaccine campaigns behind schedule, it is
still ucnclear when — or indeed if — record levels of private savings will
finally convert into a much-needed spending boom.
Daniel Krupka, managing director of a
technology think tank based in Berlin, is a case in point. After Germany on
Monday extended its lockdown, he cancelled a one-week family holiday on the
Baltic Sea island of Hiddensee booked for April.
"We probably would have spent up to
2,000 euros, but this won't happen now," Krupka said.
"Maybe we can spend a week on Hiddensee
later in the year, but I'm also thinking about using the money now for bringing
down our mortgage with an extra repayment to the bank."
While the pandemic has either threatened or
destroyed the livelihoods of millions, those lucky enough to have kept working
have in many cases bolstered their savings accounts as national restrictions
deprive them of opportunities to spend their cash.
Forecasters and policymakers had hoped this
reserve of enforced savings would start to be unleashed on the euro zone
economy from about now, kickstarting a local recovery that is already expected
to lag well behind that of the United States.
But new restrictions such as those in Germany
and France, the euro zone's two largest economies, cloud such hopes.
The French Finance Ministry believes new
month-long measures announced last week targeting non-essential retail in Paris
and parts of the north will have minimal impact on the economy.
But private sector economists are less
optimistic, with credit insurer Euler Hermes trimming its 2021 growth forecast
by half a percentage point to 5.4 percent.
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