Will the Al-Aqsa Flood ruin Israel's arms deals?

iron dome
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AMMAN – The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) issued its new list of the top 100 companies in the world engaged in the production of weapons and military services for the year 2022 in December.اضافة اعلان

As reported by Khaberni, the list includes three Israeli companies, with Elbit Systems ranking 24th, Israel Aerospace Industries ranking 35th, and Rafael ranking 42nd. All three companies are among the top 50 globally.

Another report from the institute revealed that Israel ranked tenth on the list of the largest arms exporters during the period from 2018 to 2022, accounting for 2.3 percent of the total global arms sales.

This demonstrates Israel's prominent position in the global arms trade network after major powers such as the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and Germany.

Israeli Defense Collapse Effects
With the collapse of the Israeli defense line in Gaza on the day the Al-Qassam Brigades carried out the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, and the failure of surveillance and protection systems to prevent the breach of the separation barrier, Israel's pride, the Merkava tank, was destroyed and damaged by locally made rocket launchers during the ground operation. The Namer armored personnel carrier, which costs about $3 million, suffered a painful blow after one of them was destroyed by a Cornet missile, killing all its occupants.

Despite its reputation for providing protection against anti-tank missiles through an active protection system and its strong armor, this type of weaponry has been adversely affected, raising doubts about its effectiveness.

The repercussions began early, as reported by Intelligence Online. South Korea initiated a review of the effectiveness of the surveillance and protection system it acquired from the Israeli company Elbit Systems to monitor the demilitarized zone with North Korea. This move followed its failure to protect the barrier wall in Gaza, amid concerns about a potential North Korean attack similar to the one that disrupted the system's effectiveness.

Tel Aviv also decided to halt all military and security equipment sales, along with associated services, to Colombia following a statement by Colombian President Gustavo Petro that 'terrorism kills innocent children in Palestine.' Colombia, which purchases drones, surveillance technologies, and electronic espionage from Israel, found its Israeli-related acquisitions affected.

Since arms sales are executed based on contracts that take time to negotiate and implement over several years, the repercussions of the performance of Israeli weapons in Gaza on sales are expected to gradually appear in the coming years. Specifically, sales of weapons that prove to be unsuccessful and fail to deliver the promoted features, such as the Namer armored personnel carrier and Merkava tank, as well as Israeli surveillance systems, may be impacted."

Origins of Israeli weapons industry?
During its first two decades, Israel relied on arms from France, which aimed to establish regional balance with Egypt in response to its support for the Algerian struggle against French occupation.

As this strategic rapprochement declined, French President Charles de Gaulle imposed a ban on arms sales to Israel in 1967. Subsequently, Tel Aviv directed 46 percent of its total research and development investments to the local arms industry to meet the needs of its army and reduce dependence on foreign sources subject to political restrictions. Additionally, Israel sought to achieve side goals such as stimulating economic growth, developing technological innovation for civilian use, and providing employment opportunities for scientists and engineers who immigrated to Israel from Western industrialized countries.

The United States on the scene
With the United States beginning military aid to Israel in 1973, there was a surge in the Israeli military industries sector. Washington allowed Israel to convert part of its aid to shekels to buy weapons from Israeli companies, increasing local demand.

Given that the profitability of production depends on economies of scale, and Israeli weapons companies serve a small local market compared to their counterparts in the United States, the Soviet Union, and Western countries, Israel sought external markets to expand exports, allowing the production of weapons at an economical price.

Retired officers from the military and intelligence played a role in establishing private companies and promoting Israeli arms exports abroad, especially to Latin American countries, which accounted for 60 percent of Israeli arms exports by 1980.

India and Azerbaijan entered the scene as relations between Israel and these countries grew. The turning point was the formal establishment of relations in 1992. Azerbaijan, after gaining independence from the Soviet Union, needed quality weapons quickly due to its repeated wars with Armenia. Thus, Israeli arms exports shifted towards Asia.

Another leap occurred when the United States determined its annual aid to Israel in 1999, pre-agreed within a "memorandum of understanding," renewed every ten years. This allowed the Israeli army to make long-term armament plans, ensuring stable funding for weapons manufacturing programs by Israeli companies.

By 2014, Israel became the world's leading exporter of drones with a market share of 60 percent at that time. It also became a leading country in precision weapons, electronic warfare, command and control systems, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, as well as manufacturing Merkava tanks, Namer armored fighting vehicles, and air defense and missile systems like Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow.

Size of Israeli Arms Companies
Currently, according to the book "Israeli Defense Industry and US Security Assistance" published by the Israeli National Security Studies Institute in 2020, there are about 600 companies operating in the Israeli weapons production system.

They employ over 45,000 people, with an average annual sales of $10 billion. Seventy percent of their production is exported, a massive figure when compared to the United States, which exports about 24 percent of its production, and Russia, which exports 55 percent.

Since large Israeli weapons companies are wholly or partially owned by the government, such as Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, these companies have helped Tel Aviv build broader international relationships. Selling weapons is not limited to delivering hardware but also opens the door to close relationships between the seller and the buyer regarding training, maintenance, and the supply of spare parts.

As the ability of countries to export weapons is linked to proving the field effectiveness of these weapons through their experience in actual combat operations, the exports of Israeli weapons depend on the reputation and performance of the Israeli army.

This prompted Germany, after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, to request the purchase of the Arrow-3 missile defense system from Tel Aviv due to the success of Israeli missile defense systems in intercepting a large percentage of missiles launched toward Israel.


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