WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Forecast to 2.4% in 2025

WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Forecast to 2.4% in 2025
WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Forecast to 2.4% in 2025
Global trade performed better than expected in the first half of 2025, with the volume of world merchandise trade rising by 4.9% year-on-year, according to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) October report on global trade outlook and statistics.اضافة اعلان

The report noted that the dollar value of trade increased by 6%, driven by advance imports in North America ahead of new tariffs, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and a sharp surge in AI-related goods.

The WTO raised its forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in its August estimates. However, it lowered the 2026 forecast to 0.5% from 1.8%, reflecting the delayed impact of new tariffs that may weigh more heavily on growth in 2026 amid slowing economies and inventory drawdowns.

AI-related goods—including semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment—were the main driver of trade expansion in the first half of 2025. Their value jumped over 20%, reaching $1.92 trillion compared to $1.61 trillion in the same period of 2024.

Although these products account for only about 15% of total global trade, they contributed nearly half of overall growth, highlighting the structural shift in digital value chains and surging global demand for AI infrastructure.

As for services trade, the report projected a marked slowdown, with global services exports growth expected to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and then to 4.4% in 2026. The drop is mainly attributed to weaker transport and travel services: transport is expected to fall from 4.5% to 2.5%, and travel from 11% to 3.1%. Other services are projected to remain stable, with digital services maintaining momentum, growing by 6.1% in 2025.

Regionally, Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export growth in 2025 at 5.3% each, while North America and the CIS are projected to see contractions. On the import side, Africa will lead with an 11.8% increase, followed by South and Central America at 8.8%, while North America’s imports are expected to shrink by 4.9%.

South-South trade played a significant role in supporting global trade, rising 8% in value in the first half of 2025, above the global average of 6%. Excluding China, South-South trade grew even faster, at nearly 9%.

The WTO warned that the resilience seen in 2025 may not persist at the same pace, with growth expected to slow in 2026 due to inventory reductions, the rising impact of tariffs, heightened policy uncertainty, and the potential expansion of trade-restrictive measures.

Nevertheless, the report stressed that continued growth in AI-related goods and services remains a positive factor that could support global trade in the medium term.

The WTO concluded that trade’s resilience in 2025 was supported by balanced macroeconomic policies and the stability of the multilateral trading system but emphasized that current challenges require collective action to reimagine the future of trade and build a stronger foundation for shared prosperity.