The sudden surge of Bitcoin to a new record over the weekend has prompted options traders to increase bets that the world’s largest cryptocurrency will continue rising toward $140,000.
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Short-term Bitcoin options expiring at year-end have seen a concentration of open interest around this target strike price for call options, according to data from the digital derivatives platform Deribit by Coinbase. There was also a moderate rise in put option demand as traders sought to hedge against potential pullbacks after the recent rally.
Greg Magadini, Head of Derivatives at Amberdata, said: “We are currently witnessing the largest nominal open interest in Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts in history, even after a series of liquidations from closing long positions. The surge surprised the market, and we haven’t reached the peak yet, especially as many traders had bet on a market drop.”
Bitcoin surpassed $125,000 for the first time after midnight on Saturday in New York, with 24/7 trading and thin liquidity allowing optimistic traders to push the price past this level.
Bitcoin Volatility
Jean-David Picard, Head of Trading at Deribit by Coinbase, noted: “From this point, rising volatility and any increase in put option volume should be monitored as warning signals for potential near-term corrections. Optimists are eyeing $130,000, while pessimists may find opportunities in overbought conditions.”
Bitcoin hit a new record on Monday, rising 2.8% to $126,251, more than doubling in value over the past year.
The rise coincided with the U.S. government shutdown on October 1, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. The shutdown delayed the release of key economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report. Gold also rose to a record above $3,900 per ounce on Monday, continuing a months-long rally.
Traders said the surge was largely driven by increased demand in the spot market. Investors poured $3.2 billion into 12 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs last week, marking the second-largest inflow since their launch in 2024. Meanwhile, open interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust reached a record $49.8 billion on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
Futures contracts—both perpetual and fixed-term—rose during the rally, while many traders rushed to close short positions as prices climbed. Total open interest in crypto derivatives reached $75 billion across platforms, with some of the largest trading volumes recorded on Binance and CME, according to Amberdata.
Crypto Bets
Unlike some previous rallies driven mainly by derivatives, liquidations in both directions remained limited. Crypto bet liquidations totaled around $283 million in the past 24 hours, compared with nearly $2 billion in late September after a sharp Bitcoin drop, one of the largest daily liquidations this year, according to Coinglass.
Adam McCarthy, Research Analyst at Kaiko, said: “If economic updates and expected data go smoothly, we could see the rally continue through year-end.”
October is known among crypto traders as “Uptober,” historically the best month of the year for Bitcoin, with average gains of about 22.5% over the past decade, according to Bloomberg data.
Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset, rose about 5% to $4,700 on Monday, while XRP edged slightly above $3, Bloomberg reported.
