Leaders from Russia, China, India, and seven other countries met on Monday in northern China for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), signaling a potential emerging challenge to U.S. global leadership.
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The SCO, which includes 10 member states, convened in the coastal city of Tianjin. Since its founding 24 years ago, the organization has grown in size and influence, though its objectives and programs remain somewhat opaque and its profile low.
Full membership includes Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Initially, the SCO was seen as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in Central Asia. Membership later expanded to include India and Pakistan in 2017, Iran in 2023, and Belarus in 2024.
Some member states, like Iran and Russia’s close ally Belarus, are openly adversarial toward the West, while relations among India, China, and Russia are more nuanced, especially given U.S. ambiguity over the Russia-Ukraine war and recent tariffs affecting trade with China and India.
From Regional Bloc to Broader Alliance
Since its inception in 2001, China has dominated the SCO as the major regional economic power, while Russia has leveraged the organization to maintain influence in the former Soviet Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Although Russia’s economic influence has steadily declined under increasing Western sanctions, both Russia and China have used the SCO as a framework for regional military cooperation, albeit limited to joint exercises and shooting competitions.
Belarus, Iran, Pakistan, and India later joined to capitalize on the organization’s growing influence, though the value of their membership is debated. Iran and Belarus face international sanctions and human rights criticisms, while Pakistan relies heavily on China for military equipment.
SCO Reflects Xi Jinping’s Vision of a Multipolar World
Dali Yang, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said the SCO is one of the key regional organizations China helped establish.
He added, “Chinese leadership pays significant attention to maintaining international relationships, even though the SCO has not been effective in addressing today’s major challenges.”
John Teufel Dreyer, a China policy expert at the University of Miami, noted that the organization seems to be transitioning from a dialogue platform to a “comprehensive mechanism for practical cooperation that delivers tangible results for member states’ citizens.” Yet questions remain: “To what end, and how?”
President Xi views his chairmanship in Tianjin as an opportunity for positive publicity and possibly enhancing his image as a leader of a new global order.
India’s Entry Could Shift the Balance
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, India has become a major buyer of Russian oil, increasing tensions with Washington. Prime Minister Modi also highlighted “steady progress” in improving relations with China after meeting its foreign minister in August, emphasizing respect for each party’s interests and sensitivities.
India’s membership may challenge Russia and China’s dominance within the SCO. While trade ties exist, India is unlikely to support Russia’s war in Ukraine or China’s claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
India has long sought a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, but has received lukewarm support from China and Russia, likely to avoid reducing their leverage with the West.
Notably, India refused to sign a joint statement at the SCO defense ministers’ meeting in June, citing its pro-Pakistan stance and failure to address the April 22 mass shooting in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Military Parade in Beijing to Feature Many Leaders
China’s official Xinhua news agency described the Tianjin gathering as “the largest SCO summit in history,” setting out “a plan for the next decade of bloc development.”
Leaders from around a dozen other countries joined as dialogue partners or guests, including Egypt, Nepal, and several Southeast Asian nations.
With growing trade and railway transport between China and SCO members, as well as observer and dialogue partner states, Beijing appears keen to highlight the alliance’s economic benefits.
Among documents signed on Monday was a statement marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, commemorated by the Chinese Communist Party with a military parade in central Beijing on September 3. Several leaders will attend, including North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, making a rare appearance abroad.
