Natural gas prices in Europe are on track to record their largest weekly increase since the energy crisis, as the war in the Middle East continues to cloud the outlook for global flows. Benchmark futures are heading toward an end-of-week rise exceeding 60%, as the war in Iran enters its seventh day.
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While prices remain significantly lower than the record highs seen during the energy crisis—currently hovering near €50 per megawatt-hour (MWh) compared to a historical peak of over €300/MWh—the market remains on edge.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near-total standstill, forcing dozens of tankers loaded with oil and gas to remain in the Arabian Gulf to avoid risks. This maritime corridor typically serves as a transit point for approximately one-fifth of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.
Simultaneously, the implied volatility of Europe’s benchmark gas futures—an indicator of the cost of underlying options contracts—has surged more than fourfold since the start of 2026, nearing its highest level since the summer of 2023.
The Dutch front-month futures, the benchmark for European gas prices, rose 3.8% to €52.68 per megawatt-hour on Friday.
