Washington and Tehran Hold Talks in Islamabad Amid Modest Expectations

Washington and Tehran Hold Talks in Islamabad Amid Modest Expectations
Washington and Tehran Hold Talks in Islamabad Amid Modest Expectations
A new round of talks between the United States and Iran is set to begin in Pakistan on Saturday, as Tehran insists on conditions related to a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of its frozen assets, placing the negotiation process under an early test.
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White House officials have expressed skepticism that the talks will immediately lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while senior Iranian negotiators have cast doubt on the process, stating that discussions cannot begin without commitments regarding Lebanon and sanctions relief.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that any ceasefire must include an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and emphasized the need to release Iranian assets frozen under sanctions.

It remains unclear whether these demands will derail the talks, which represent the highest-level engagement between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that led to decades of hostility between the two countries.

As Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Islamabad alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the Pakistani capital witnessed unprecedented security measures, with thousands of paramilitary forces and army units deployed across the city. Pakistan hopes to strengthen its credentials as a mediator while demonstrating stability.

Vance warned Iran against attempting to “manipulate” Washington as he headed to Islamabad.

Iran has emerged weakened from the conflict that began in late February, but it still retains the capability to strike neighboring countries and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, despite repeated declarations of victory by President Donald Trump.

The war has triggered one of the largest shocks to global oil supplies, damaging energy production in the Gulf and raising concerns about inflation, food insecurity, and the risk of a global recession.

Facing pressure ahead of midterm elections later this year, Trump is seeking an exit from the conflict. He announced a ceasefire on Tuesday, just hours before a deadline after which he had threatened to destroy Iranian “civilization.”

White House “Skeptical” About Talks

Iran remains wary of Witkoff and Kushner, who previously led Oman-mediated talks shortly before the United States and Israel launched a bombing campaign that killed several senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Vance, who has limited foreign policy experience, has also expressed skepticism about U.S. interventions abroad.

Speaking before departing Washington on Friday morning, Vance said the United States would extend an “open hand” but needed to determine whether Iran would negotiate in good faith.

Two White House officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the atmosphere within the administration is marked by skepticism ahead of the talks.

They added that Trump now acknowledges reopening the Strait of Hormuz will likely not be easy, even if the negotiations achieve some progress.

The officials also indicated that Trump is uncertain whether the Iranian team has sufficient authority to negotiate seriously, suggesting he views Araghchi as weak due to his preference for diplomatic approaches.

Iran insists that any ceasefire must also include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in fighting with Hezbollah, a group allied with Tehran.

Iran and Pakistan have stated that they understood the temporary truce to include a halt to Israel’s war in Lebanon. However, Israel initially rejected this and carried out a wave of strikes on Wednesday that killed more than 250 people.

A source familiar with the matter said Trump urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call on Thursday to scale back attacks on Hezbollah. Netanyahu later agreed to hold talks scheduled to take place in Washington next week.

Wide Gaps Remain

Trump said the Iranian proposal would form the basis of the Islamabad talks, although Tehran’s 10-point plan differs significantly from Washington’s 15-point framework, highlighting major gaps that must be addressed.

Iran’s proposal includes demands for significant concessions, such as lifting sanctions that have crippled its economy and recognizing its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, including imposing transit fees and controlling access—moves that would significantly expand its regional influence.

In contrast, Washington is demanding that Tehran abandon its stockpile of enriched uranium, halt enrichment activities, end its missile program, and cease support for its regional allies.

A source indicated that the U.S. delegation is also expected to demand the release of American citizens detained in Iran. At least six Americans are currently held in Iran, including jeweler Kamran Hakimati and journalist Reza Valizadeh.

Reuters