Following the announcement of an indefinite ceasefire extension, U.S. President Donald Trump continues his arduous quest to find an exit strategy in the Middle East.
اضافة اعلان
According to experts, the options range from reaching a limited agreement with Tehran, resuming hostilities, or a full withdrawal.
Trump has insisted on maintaining the naval blockade imposed on Iran; however, Tehran refuses to negotiate before it is lifted, rejecting any talks conducted "under threat."
While Trump revived hopes for progress in a second round of negotiations, Iran did not send a delegation to Islamabad—the venue for the talks—and Vice President J.D. Vance remained in the United States.
As the two-week truce neared its end and U.S. Gulf allies prepared for the possibility of new Iranian strikes, Trump stated he extended the ceasefire because the Iranian leadership is "divided" and requires more time to present a proposal.
"Trump could have escalated further and launched more reckless military action, but so far he is refraining from deeper involvement," said Alex Vatanka, a fellow at the Middle East Institute and an expert on Iranian affairs.
This conflict carries significant political consequences for Trump, who campaigned on a platform of avoiding foreign military interventions. His war against Iran faces opposition even within Republican circles.
In response to the hostilities, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes, leading to a spike in U.S. fuel prices ahead of the Congressional elections.
Exhausting Political Options
Despite heavy losses, the Iranian regime does not appear to be on the brink of collapse or surrender, according to Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence expert.
"Trump does not want escalation. I am not saying he won't escalate, but he is truly trying to exhaust every possible political option," Citrinowicz noted. "I believe Trump is tired of this war and realizes that its cost in Washington will only increase."
However, Iranian officials remain deeply suspicious of him. They were in negotiations with Washington just days before the massive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Similarly, last June, negotiations were underway before Israel launched a series of strikes on military and nuclear sites in Iran, later joined by the United States.
Neither Trump nor his adversaries in Iran wish to show any sign of backing down.
Vatanka suggests that Trump’s declaration of a naval blockade on Iranian ports was intended as a show of strength, but it ultimately undermined diplomacy. He does not rule out an exit strategy where the U.S. maintains the blockade on paper but does not strictly enforce it.
Iran might settle for this to return to the negotiating table, but if they insist on a total lifting of the blockade, "it means they care more about appearances than reaching a deal, which would be a mistake on their part," Vatanka added.
The Blockade as Leverage
So far, Trump has shown no intention of backing away from the blockade. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a long-time advocate for striking Iran, stated that the blockade could become the ultimate tool of pressure.
Graham wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that based on his conversations with Trump, "the blockade will expand and could soon become global."
Sina Toossi, a fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Trump faces two choices regarding the blockade: lift it, which would bolster Iran's sense of leverage, or maintain it and risk ending the ceasefire.
"The prevailing view in Tehran is that time is on their side, and that a prolonged war will impose increasing costs on the United States and the global economy," Toossi added.
— AFP
