September 30 2022 7:32 PM E-paper Subscribe Sign in My Account Sign out

The war in Ukraine creates a global crisis

ukraine
Evacuees rush to board a train to Poland, at the Lviv train station, western Ukraine, on March 5, 2022. (Photo: AFP)
In less than a week, the war in Ukraine has completely disturbed the world's security architecture, and disrupted trade flows on at least three continents. اضافة اعلان

Russia's military invasion of Ukraine has provoked a strong reaction from the EU, the US, NATO, and most of the world's states, from Japan to South America. At the UN, the only countries that sided with Russia were North Korea, Belarus, Syria, and Eritrea. On the other hand, 141 nations condemned the Russian attack.

The new aggression is bound to change the old security arrangements completely, and the economic consequences will be incalculable at this time.

The war in Ukraine is rapidly turning into a global crisis with multiple consequences. It will severely affect energy security worldwide, as customers are discouraged from buying Russian oil or gas, which will put pressure on other producers, especially in the Middle East.

These days we are witnessing the largest exodus of Western companies from a country. Russia is virtually abandoned by all the big global companies that are accepting huge losses to sanction military aggression against a sovereign state.

The risks of a military escalation are also high. NATO said that it would respond forcefully if a member state were attacked. Ukraine is not part of NATO and the organization will not engage militarily in that country, but two of the most important NATO member states in the eastern flank, Romania and Poland, have an extensive border with Ukraine and host important US military bases.
The war in Ukraine is rapidly turning into a global crisis with multiple consequences. It will severely affect energy security worldwide, as customers are discouraged from buying Russian oil or gas, which will put pressure on other producers, especially in the Middle East.
US President Joe Biden has clearly stated that it will defend with all its might every inch of land of allied countries. The strength of this discourse is supported by American public opinion. According to a recent opinion poll initiated by the Strategic Thinking Group (www.strategicthinking.ro) and conducted by Romanian polling company INSCOP Research in partnership with the American research company The Bullfinch Group, the US population, Republican and Democrats alike, strongly supports sending American troops to Romania and Poland to deter recent threats from Russia.

Beyond the US authorities' strong messages of support for the security of Romania and the concrete actions that quickly followed them (American troops and equipment are already deployed in Romania and Poland), the fact that the American public strongly agrees with the measures in support of NATO member states in the face of Russia's threats and aggression gives confidence in a critical period when the sense of security in the region is severely affected.

Other data shows an equally strong support for Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which says that “an armed attack against one or more of the NATO members in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all of them”. Of those polled in the US, almost 60 percent said that, as a NATO member state, the US should get involved in defending another NATO member state if it is attacked.

Such findings lead one to believe that reactions to Russia's military aggression will remain strong, and have the potential to have severe global consequences.

The writer is president of the Strategic Thinking Group and CEO of Inscop Research.

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