LONDON — Just a week ago, Prime Minister
Boris Johnson’s
political survival looked very much in doubt, his party in revolt and the
public angered over disclosures about parties at Downing Street that violated
lockdown rules.
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Now, Johnson appears to have won a reprieve — aided,
paradoxically, by the British police opening an investigation of the allegations.
The police’s involvement has derailed the publication of a full report on the
parties, which many lawmakers have said could trigger a groundswell to oust
Johnson.
On Friday, police confirmed they had asked for critical details
to be withheld from the eagerly anticipated report, which was compiled by a
senior civil servant, Sue Gray. By scrubbing the most incriminating material,
the report could give Johnson a chance to regroup rather than face a crippling
no-confidence vote.
His stronger position, at the end of a murky, fevered week in
British politics, has outraged opposition leaders and other critics. Some
accused the police of an ill-timed intervention that allowed Johnson to escape
judgment for flouting the rules he had imposed on others, as well as for
dissembling about it afterward.
“Britain faces huge challenges as we emerge from the pandemic,
and it is offensive that the government’s sole focus is on cleaning up after
themselves,” said the leader of the Labour Party, Keir Starmer. “The Gray
report must be published in full as soon as possible, and the police have to
get on with their investigation.”
Still, Johnson faces a political landscape strewn with land
mines. The Gray report, which is now expected early next week, could yet be
damaging, even in a redacted form. And police could impose fines on several
people for breaching lockdown restrictions, including the prime minister
himself.
Even a prolonged investigation would make it hard for Johnson to
put the scandal behind him. His party’s poll numbers have swooned, while his
own ratings have collapsed. If Conservative lawmakers fall short of the
threshold of 54 dissidents necessary to call a no-confidence vote this time,
they could do it again in May, after local elections, which will be a test of
how much damage the Tories have suffered.
“It may have bought him some time, but my view is that the vote
of confidence is coming,” said Philip Cowley, a professor of politics at Queen
Mary, University of London. “We know that voters are volatile and can change
their minds, but it would be unprecedented for someone to come back from
ratings this low to then be successful electorally.”
In the short run, the biggest casualty of the murky maneuvering
is the Metropolitan Police commissioner, Cressida Dick. After declining for
weeks to investigate the reports of parties, her force abruptly announced
Tuesday that it had decided to open an investigation, just as Gray’s report was
nearing completion and after its findings were shared with her.
That set off days of confusion about the timing and contents of
the report, which Johnson had earlier promised to publish in full, soon after
it was submitted.
On Tuesday, Downing Street said that parts of the report that
treaded into areas under police investigation would be removed, potentially
delaying its publication. But the British media then reported that police did
not think the document would prejudice their work, stirring speculation that it
would still be published this week.
If that was true, Scotland Yard appeared to change its mind. On
Thursday, Downing Street said that negotiations were underway between Gray’s
team and the police over what could be included in the document without
hampering police inquiries, as the wait for publication continued.
Newspapers have reported that a string of parties were held at
Downing Street during lockdowns, some featuring music and late-night revelry.
In one case, a junior staff member was reportedly dispatched to a store with a
suitcase to fill with wine bottles. In another, staff members broke a swing set
that Johnson had installed for his toddler son, Wilfred.
Across England and Wales, police have issued more than 118,000
fixed penalty notices, which lead to fines, for breaches of coronavirus rules.
Yet Downing Street, the epicenter of the party scandal, is one of the most
heavily guarded buildings in the country, with dozens of police officers
controlling security.
“Arguably all of this would have been avoided if police had done
the sensible thing and begun investigating in December,” Adam Wagner, a lawyer
and expert on the coronavirus rules, wrote on Twitter. “Now we are in public
accountability limbo and there is a messy dynamic between the internal Gray
report and police investigation.”
In their statement Friday, police said, “For the events the Met
is investigating, we asked for minimal reference to be made in the Cabinet
Office report.” They said they had not asked for the publication of the report
to be delayed nor for it to be scrubbed of details that were not under police
investigation.
But as a practical matter, the request means the report will
almost certainly not contain information about the most serious accusations
about social gatherings violating lockdown restrictions. Opposition leaders
pounced on the prospect of a delayed or heavily redacted report, arguing that
it would amount to a whitewash.
“A stitch up between the Met leadership and Number 10 will
damage our politics for generations and it looks like it is happening right in
front of our eyes,” Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, wrote on
Twitter.
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