Amman – Amid renewed national debate over the future of the social protection system, the results of the 11th actuarial study of the Social Security Corporation (SSC) have shown that the system’s financial position remains safe, stable, and capable of meeting its obligations to contributors and retirees over the medium and long term.
اضافة اعلان
The study confirmed that the first breakeven point has been pushed back to 2030, and the second breakeven point to 2038, providing an important time buffer for decision-makers to address imbalances without infringing on accrued rights.
At the same time, the study highlighted structural challenges, most notably the rapid rise in pension expenditures—especially early retirement—along with continued insurance evasion and a widening coverage gap, all of which call for carefully considered legislative and policy reforms.
Experts in social protection unanimously agreed that actuarial studies serve as an early warning tool, not an indicator of an imminent crisis. They stressed that success in the coming phase depends on a broad national dialogue leading to balanced reform that strengthens financial sustainability, improves conditions for low-income pensioners, and safeguards the rights of current and future generations within a framework of social justice and stability.
In announcing the results of the 11th actuarial study, the SSC reaffirmed that the system’s financial position is safe and stable, and that it remains capable of fulfilling its obligations over the long term. The postponement of the first breakeven point to 2030 and the second to 2038 reflects the fund’s resilience and sustainability.
The Corporation emphasized that rising expenditures under old-age, disability, and survivor insurance—driven by early retirement and insurance evasion—remain a persistent challenge, necessitating thoughtful legislative and policy adjustments to enhance financial sustainability and further defer breakeven points.
It also confirmed that any future reform will be guided by three core principles: ensuring financial sustainability, protecting the rights of future generations, and improving the conditions of retirees with low pensions. Dialogue on reforms will be conducted through the Economic and Social Council in cooperation with partners and experts to reach balanced and sustainable solutions.
A Cohesive System
Hamadeh Abu Najmeh, President of Beit Al-Ummal (Workers’ House), said the study once again demonstrates that the social security system remains financially cohesive and capable of meeting its obligations in the medium and long term.
He noted that claims of an imminent danger or collapse are not based on accurate scientific data, as pushing the first breakeven point to 2030 and the second to 2038 provides sufficient time for calm and thoughtful reform, addressing structural imbalances without compromising contributors’ acquired rights.
Abu Najmeh added that the study also exposed weaknesses such as the excessive expansion of early retirement and labor law provisions that allowed termination of workers’ services without valid justification, calling for a comprehensive policy review rather than placing responsibility solely on individuals.
He stressed that insurance evasion and the widening coverage gap remain among the most serious challenges facing the system, and that any reform must focus on expanding the contributor base, regulating declared wages, and strengthening oversight and inspection.
“Social security sustainability is not merely a financial issue; it is the essence of the social contract between the state and society,” he said, describing it as the most important tool for achieving social security, economic stability, and protecting the rights of current and future generations.
He welcomed the launch of a national dialogue through the Economic and Social Council, expressing hope that it would be genuine and comprehensive, leading to balanced reform that protects the system and improves pensioners’ conditions without undermining accrued benefits and rights.
Identifying Structural Gaps
Ahmed Awad, Director of the Phoenix Center for Economic and Informatics Studies, said the actuarial study successfully fulfilled its legal and technical role as a tool for assessing the sustainability of the insurance system, diagnosing the financial and demographic reality, and identifying potential weaknesses.
He explained that actuarial studies are evaluation and early-warning tools aimed at measuring the Social Security Fund’s ability to continue meeting its obligations, rather than instruments for direct implementation or reform.
Awad noted that the 11th study confirms the system’s financial position remains safe and stable in the medium term and that breakeven points have not yet been reached, reflecting the fund’s current strength. However, he cautioned that this stability is conditional, as the approach of breakeven points in the coming years requires carefully designed legislative and policy interventions to maintain balance between revenues and expenditures.
He added that actuarial studies form a scientific basis for national dialogue on reforming the Social Security Law and guiding necessary amendments to ensure system continuity and intergenerational equity, especially since social security is the backbone of Jordan’s social protection framework.
Awad also pointed out that the study’s findings had been anticipated by specialists for years, warning repeatedly against governments’ expansion of early retirement for employees, which inflated pension costs, as well as the government’s failure to pay part of military personnel contributions, weak economic growth, expansion of informal labor, and insurance evasion—all of which weakened the contributor base and increased pressure on the fund.
He stressed that sustainability will only be achieved through serious engagement with the study’s outcomes, translating them into responsible political decisions and balanced, fair legislative amendments within a transparent national dialogue that equitably distributes the cost of reform and protects contributors’ rights.
A Key Tool for Assessing Sustainability
Insurance and social protection expert Mousa Al-Subaihi explained that the SSC is legally required under the Social Security Law to conduct at least one actuarial study every three years, with no restriction on conducting more if necessary to assess future financial conditions based on expected expenditures and revenues.
He described actuarial studies as an essential tool for evaluating financial sustainability, particularly amid the rapid growth of pension expenditures—the largest component of insurance spending. The results, he said, are used to take corrective action when imbalances or warning signs emerge.
Based on study outcomes, the SSC may review coverage policies, intensify efforts to combat partial and full insurance evasion, reassess and rationalize early retirement policies, and, if absolutely necessary, amend the Social Security Law to strengthen the institution’s financial position.
Al-Subaihi noted that actuarial studies provide three main indicators: the breakeven point between contributions and insurance expenditures; the breakeven point between expenditures and total income (including investment returns); and the stage of significant financial deficit. He stressed that these indicators are not inevitable outcomes but early alerts for preventive action.
Regarding the 11th actuarial study, he emphasized that it sends an important warning to both the SSC and the government about the need to amend the Social Security Law, particularly given expectations that contributions and insurance expenditures—including pension costs—will equalize by 2030, a near-term horizon requiring urgent intervention.
He explained that this scenario would reduce the SSC’s assets to less than ten times its insurance expenditures, as estimated in the 10th study, necessitating legislative and administrative measures to correct course and review policies that have negatively affected the financial position—chief among them excessive reliance on early retirement, especially in the public sector.
Al-Subaihi called for the immediate cessation of forced early retirement in the public sector, limiting early retirement strictly to necessary cases, and expanding coverage to include groups legally subject to social security but still outside its protection.
He stressed that expanding coverage not only strengthens the SSC’s financial position but also provides essential social protection for workers, adding that the institution’s success depends on accurately interpreting actuarial results and making bold, well-considered decisions to amend the law and correct policies.
He concluded that prospects for success are high, emphasizing that the state in all its branches cannot accept the approach of the first breakeven point, and must push it beyond 2035 and then beyond 2040 to achieve a financial safety horizon of 30–40 years—the benchmark adopted in most countries to ensure the sustainability of social security systems.
