The Danish Refugee Council (DRC) has warned of a worsening global displacement crisis, predicting in its latest report that wars, conflicts, and violence will drive 4.2 million people from their homes by the end of 2027. Notably, these estimates do not include those fleeing or affected by the ongoing war and tensions in the Middle East.
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The DRC’s projections, based on data available at the end of 2025, indicate that this expected figure will be added to the 117.3 million people already displaced worldwide.
The Impact of the Middle East Conflict
Charlotte Slente, Secretary-General of the DRC, stated in a press release: "The war in the Middle East is causing new displacement and worsening the humanitarian situation." She emphasized that a permanent ceasefire is the necessary "roadmap" to save the region from the brink, particularly in Lebanon, where one in five people has been displaced by the war. She called for families in Lebanon and Iran to be allowed to return home to "rebuild their lives in peace."
Shifting Displacement Trends
The report highlights a significant shift in the global displacement map:
Decentralized Crises: Recent displacements are spreading across a larger number of countries, rather than being concentrated in a few major crises as in the past.
Projections: In 2025, Myanmar and Sudan alone accounted for over half of the total projected displacement; in the updated forecast, they represent only a quarter.
The Link Between Funding and Stability
The report established a direct correlation between international aid and displacement rates:
Rising Displacement: The five countries with the highest projected displacement for 2025—Ukraine, South Sudan, Nigeria, and Mali—saw their peace effort funding cut by an average of 23% in 2024.
Declining Displacement: In contrast, countries where displacement dropped significantly—including Somalia, Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria, and the DR Congo—saw funding for peace efforts increase by an average of 15%.
Source: AFP
