Signs are growing that U.S. President Donald Trump could resort to a new military escalation against Iran, as regional diplomatic efforts intensify to prevent a renewed war amid Israeli pressure for a joint military operation against Tehran immediately after the midterm elections scheduled for November.
اضافة اعلان
Axios, citing U.S. and regional sources, reported that Trump may be more inclined to order a major military operation against Iran if Republicans suffer a significant defeat in the elections. Such a loss could push the U.S. president toward a bold military move, particularly if he feels politically embarrassed or believes his influence is waning.
The outlet quoted a U.S. official as saying, “If he feels embarrassed or sidelined, he will do something bold,” adding that this is the message regional parties are trying to convey to Iran, warning that its best opportunity to reach an agreement is now. A White House official, however, said the election results would not influence Trump’s decisions regarding Iran.
The assessments come as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressures the U.S. administration to launch a joint military operation against Iran immediately after the elections, while regional countries seek to prevent the region from sliding into another confrontation.
In this context, Qatari mediators held intensive talks in the Iranian capital Tehran on Friday that lasted more than 12 hours, in an effort to reach an agreement that could pave the way for the resumption of direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran and prevent a renewed war. The talks are expected to continue in Doha on Saturday.
A diplomatic source said the Qatari mediators remained in regular contact with the White House throughout the discussions, noting “positive progress” toward reaching an agreement. Qatar is seeking to persuade both sides to accept a package of reciprocal steps to be implemented within several days, allowing direct negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and other outstanding issues to resume.
However, differences continue to hinder an understanding. The Trump administration insists that Iran make concessions on its nuclear program before negotiations resume, while Tehran is demanding that the U.S. naval blockade be lifted first, frozen Iranian funds be released and Iran be allowed to resume oil sales.
Qatari mediators are also seeking to persuade Iran to allow UN inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities that were targeted in airstrikes, viewing this as a confidence-building measure in exchange for some sanctions relief from Washington.
As the Qatari mediation continues, Axios reported divisions within Trump’s inner circle over how to deal with Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are highly skeptical that a nuclear agreement can be reached with the current Iranian regime. They believe Trump’s legacy should involve weakening the regime further, including through additional military strikes.
Vice President J.D. Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, by contrast, want negotiations to resume, despite Trump’s own doubts that Tehran will accept an agreement meeting his conditions.
Trump told reporters on Friday: “There are talks. They want to talk, and they keep talking… We have time, frankly. It’s a war, but it’s not a traditional war.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also emerged among officials urging caution over a rapid resumption of military operations. He is leading an economic pressure campaign against Iran known as “Operation Economic Rejection” and wants to give it more time to achieve its objectives rather than returning to military confrontation.
At the regional level, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are pressing Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the U.S. elections. Saudi and Turkish leaders have also urged Trump in recent days to give the diplomatic track more time.
However, these efforts face growing risks as the elections approach, amid assessments that the United States could be only days away from a potential military operation that could inflict massive destruction on Iran and target its leadership, energy facilities and infrastructure, according to previous Axios reports on U.S. and Israeli military preparations.
The developments raise concerns that a renewed war could cause widespread destruction in Iran and the Gulf states, worsening the global energy crisis. Tehran has threatened to target oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain in response to any U.S. strikes against its energy infrastructure.
The United States would likely coordinate any new attack with Israel, while Iran could respond with missile strikes, with Hezbollah potentially joining attacks against Israel. Such a scenario could broaden the confrontation and turn it into a regional war threatening energy security, maritime routes and the global economy.
