Multiple sources said U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include launching targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to support protesters, despite Israeli and Arab officials saying airstrikes alone would not topple Iran’s rulers.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wants to set the stage for “regime change” after authorities crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands. To that end, the sources said Trump is considering options to target leaders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, aiming to give protesters confidence that they could storm government and security buildings.
One of the U.S. sources said options discussed by Trump’s aides also include a much larger strike intended to have a lasting impact—possibly against ballistic missiles capable of targeting U.S. allies in the Middle East, or uranium enrichment programs. The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on how to deal with Iran, including whether to pursue a military course.
The arrival this week of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East has enhanced Trump’s ability to take potential military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s suppression of protests.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats, and a senior Western source familiar with the discussions expressed concern that such strikes could weaken a protest movement already reeling from the deadliest crackdown since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, rather than driving people back into the streets.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without widespread military defections, Iranian protests remain “heroic but lightly armed.”
On Wednesday, Trump urged Iran to come to the negotiating table and reach an agreement on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be harsher than the bombing campaign the United States carried out last June against three nuclear sites. He described the vessels in the region as a “fleet” sailing toward Iran.
A senior Iranian official said the country is “bracing for a military confrontation while at the same time using diplomatic channels,” but added that Washington does not appear open to diplomacy. Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X yesterday that Iran— which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes— is ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and mutual interests,” but would defend itself “as it has never done before” if forced to do so.
Trump has not publicly stated what he seeks in any agreement. Previous negotiating points of his administration included preventing Iran from independently enriching uranium and imposing limits on its long-range ballistic missile program and on the network of armed groups aligned with Tehran across the Middle East.
Limits of Air Power
A senior Israeli official directly familiar with U.S.-Israeli planning said Israel believes airstrikes alone cannot overthrow the Islamic Republic if that is Washington’s goal. “If you want to topple the regime, you have to send ground forces,” the official said, adding that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran “would have a new leader to replace him.”
The official said only external pressure combined with organized internal opposition could change Iran’s political course. He added that unrest has weakened Iran’s leadership, but it remains in control even amid the deep economic crisis that fueled the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence assessments have reached a similar conclusion: the conditions that sparked the protests persist and have weakened the government, but without major fractures in its leadership, according to two sources.
Western sources said they believe Trump’s apparent aim is leadership change rather than outright “regime overthrow,” a result similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention ousted a president without fully changing the government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests, blaming the unrest on the United States, Israel, and what he called “seditionists.” The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates the death toll linked to the unrest at up to 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the number at 3,117.
Khamenei’s Grip
Khamenei, 86, has stepped back from day-to-day governance and reduced public appearances, and is believed to be staying in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year killed several senior Iranian military commanders, according to regional officials.
They say daily administration has shifted to figures loyal to the Revolutionary Guard, such as senior adviser Ali Larijani. The powerful Guard controls Iran’s security network and large segments of the economy. Still, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession, and nuclear strategy—making political change extremely difficult until he exits the scene.
Two Western diplomats said some officials in the United States and Israel believe a power transition in Iran could break the deadlock in nuclear talks and eventually open the door to more cooperative relations with the West. However, they noted there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In such a vacuum, Arab officials and the diplomats believe the Revolutionary Guard could take control, reinforcing hardline rule and worsening the nuclear crisis and regional tensions.
One official said any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen the Revolutionary Guard rather than weaken it.
Across the region—from the Gulf to Turkey—officials say they prefer containment over collapse, not out of sympathy for Tehran but out of fear that turmoil in a country of 90 million people riven by sectarian and ethnic divisions could trigger instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
Two Western diplomats warned that Iran becoming a fractured state could slide into civil war, as Iraq did after the 2003 U.S. invasion—leading to refugee flows, heightened sectarian extremism, and disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy.
Regional Reaction
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh would not allow its airspace or territory to be used in military operations against Tehran. An Arab source said, “The United States may pull the trigger, but it won’t bear the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. troop deployment suggests planning has shifted from a one-off strike to a longer-lasting action, driven by Washington’s and Israel’s belief that Iran could eventually rebuild missile capabilities and produce weapons-grade material from enriched uranium.
Vatanka said the most likely outcome is “severe erosion—elite defections, economic paralysis, and succession rivalry—leading to the system eroding until it collapses.”
Reuters
