Global merchandise trade slowed in the past quarter after the momentum seen earlier this year faded, largely due to companies placing orders early ahead of U.S. tariff implementation, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
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The Geneva-based organization said its Goods Trade Barometer fell to 101.8 points in September, down from 102.2 in June. With a baseline of 100 points, the index indicates that expected growth over the next quarter will align with medium-term trends.
Air and Container Shipping Still Growing—But Slower
The WTO explained that air cargo and container shipping data “continue to show expansion,” although both have retreated from June levels, signaling an overall slowdown in global goods movement. Indicators for automotive and electronics stabilized, while agriculture remained in contraction territory. Meanwhile, new export orders showed noticeable improvement.
Overall, the organization said the indicators point to “signs of moderation in global trade growth.”
Impact of U.S. Tariffs
Tariffs of 10% or higher imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports from most major trading partners disrupted global trade throughout the year. These measures prompted many U.S. importers to rush orders to avoid higher costs, while also shifting demand away from markets facing the steepest tariffs.
For example, U.S. imports from China dropped by 22% through August of this year, while shipments from markets such as Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan rose by more than 20% since the start of the year, according to data published in Washington this month.
WTO Outlook: Slower Growth Ahead
In its latest forecast issued on October 7, the WTO projected global trade volume to grow by 2.4% this year—below the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024. For next year, the organization expects a significant slowdown, with trade growth estimated at just 0.5%.
