The recent aggressive clashes between India and Pakistan have led both sides to claim victory, despite a lack of sufficient public evidence to support either claim.
اضافة اعلان
Ultimately, success depends on the actual balance of the fighting itself.
Nevertheless, China is among the countries that can claim tangible reasons to feel victorious—especially its arms industry. AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, based in southwest China, saw its stock price surge by 40% within just five days following the conflict, according to the British newspaper The Times.
Rare Details on the Conflict
Although participants kept their losses secret, it is reported that a Pakistani J-10C fighter jet—manufactured in China—shot down a French Rafale jet operated by the Indian Air Force. The Rafale is known to be significantly cheaper. AVIC Chengdu produces the J-10C, and its “performance” against the Rafale sparked a wave of national pride throughout China.
A Breakthrough Moment
Prominent national commentator Hu Xijin wrote:
“This will represent one of the most convincing real-world demonstrations of Chinese weaponry on the global stage—a breakthrough moment for China’s defense industry.”
He added that shooting down a Western aircraft with a Chinese plane—a relatively older model already outperformed by China’s current J-20 and the experimental J-35—has significant implications for any future war over Taiwan. Hu said Taiwan should “feel fear.”
Taiwan has taken notice. Shu Hsiao Huang, from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Bloomberg:
“We may need to reassess the combat capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which may now approach or even surpass the U.S. Air Force presence in East Asia.”
Export Arms Propaganda
Chinese strategists are equally excited about the potential propaganda value for China’s arms export industry.
While China, the U.S., and their allies currently use more advanced “fifth-generation” jets—the Chinese J-22 and American F-22 and F-35—the demand for modern, if not cutting-edge, technology remains high among “secondary military powers.”
Tough Years
The U.S. has long dominated the global fighter jet market with the F-16. Despite its growing military industry, China has struggled to catch up in fighter jets and other advanced military equipment. From 2019 to last year, China ranked only fourth in total arms sales, behind the U.S.—the world’s largest arms manufacturer by a wide margin—France, and Russia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In fact, China’s market share slightly declined over the past five years. Moreover, its market is dominated by a single country—Pakistan. The U.S. once supplied Islamabad, but amid disputes over terrorism allegations and Pakistan’s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, Beijing has become Pakistan’s primary arms supplier.
Changing Dynamics
Now, other countries in the Middle East and especially in Africa may be tempted to follow Pakistan’s lead. Recently, Egypt, which often disputes with its American arms supplier, conducted its first joint air exercise with China, highlighted by J-10C fighter jets flying over the pyramids.
Yu Ziwan wrote in Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao:
“Regardless of geopolitical constraints, a main reason behind China’s weak performance in exporting advanced weapons has been the lack of real proof of their combat effectiveness.”
He added:
“The impressive performance of Chinese high-tech weapons, such as the J-10C in the recent India-Pakistan clash, will likely increase international recognition and confidence in Chinese arms, which could significantly boost China’s prospects in the global arms trade.”
A Two-Way Relationship
With significant Chinese investment now in Pakistan’s infrastructure, Pakistan acts as a key “showcase” and marketing platform for China’s international relations.
Antoine Lovisc, a researcher at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, said:
“Given the real strategic ties between the two countries, Pakistan is sometimes described as a testing ground or initial stage, or a trial market, for Chinese technologies and products that China intends to roll out or export elsewhere.”
A recent institute paper also noted the relationship is largely reciprocal. Reports indicate Pakistan supplied China with U.S. military technology for “reverse engineering” purposes.
Notable Capabilities
Pakistan claimed to have shot down three Rafale jets, but U.S. and French sources confirmed only one was destroyed during media briefings. Regardless, some capabilities of the J-10C are undeniably impressive, according to The Times.
The export price of the J-10C is reportedly around $40–50 million, compared to over $200 million for the Rafale. The J-10C boasts powerful radar with an “active electronically scanned array” and is armed with long-range PL-15 missiles—one of which allegedly shot down the Rafale over India without the Pakistani jet leaving its airspace.
Battle Outcomes and Uncertainties
No definitive information is available on the detailed outcomes of the air battles between Pakistan and India, other than their significance.
Technically, the J-10C may have operated with airborne early warning and control systems, allowing it to target enemies without relying solely on its radar. Pakistan has two advanced systems, one Chinese and the other Swedish-made by Saab (the Erieye), but it’s unclear which was used or how they were integrated.
Justin Bronk, an air force specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, told The Times:
“With the information available to the public, detailed conclusions about the relative performance of weapons or aircraft cannot be drawn.” He added, “The wider context and even the specifics of how and why the Rafale was lost are unavailable.”
Final Thoughts
Success ultimately depends on the overall balance of the conflict. India might consider losing one Rafale and possibly two older Russian jets a small price if its air force achieved the sweeping successes it claims against Pakistani military bases. India has not confirmed its losses but said no pilots were killed. Questions were also raised about the tactics India used, possibly deploying the Rafale as both a bomber and fighter simultaneously, leaving it vulnerable.
Pakistan’s Narrative
Lovisc said:
“In the battle of narratives dominating military assessments of India and Pakistan’s performance, Pakistan’s version will matter to countries already buying or considering Chinese weapons.”
He added:
“Many facts about foreign-origin equipment used in May 2025, let alone the broader capabilities that enabled their use, remain missing from both sides. So, it may be premature to draw conclusions about the market prospects from the conflict, including those related to Chinese arms.”
