AMMAN
— The head of the
Jordan Seismological Observatory, Ghassan Sweidan, told
Jordan
News that predicting earthquakes is “impossible and unscientific”, stating
that social media has spread panic among the public regarding a possible future
earthquake.
اضافة اعلان
While
it is possible to look back on
past earthquake data and written historical
records to gain insight into the patterns of a region’s tectonic activity, it
is impossible to predict the timing, location, and strength of a future
earthquake, he said.
‘More
harm than good’Geology
expert at the Hashemite University, Dr Eid Al-Torzi, confirmed that
upcoming earthquakes cannot be predicted.
Moreover,
he argued, if prediction were possible, it would do “more harm than good”,
because a predicted earthquake would place the public in a state of chaos and
panic, especially since such natural disasters are not preventable.
Instead,
countries typically focus on mitigation strategies, Torzi told Jordan News.
MitigationWhen
it comes to earthquakes, mitigation usually involves three main stages: First,
studies are conducted to determine the seismic risk of a region throughout
history, as earthquakes can often occur in the same locations at different
times.
If prediction were possible, it would do “more harm than good”, because a predicted earthquake would place the public in a state of chaos and panic
Then,
engineering, architecture, and building codes must take into account potential
natural disasters to reduce the scope of damage.
Finally,
personnel should be trained to respond to any incidents by shifting rubble,
conducting rescue operations, and meeting the medical, psychological, and
financial needs of those affected.
“This
requires the concerted efforts of all those involved,” Torzi said.
Jordan’s
seismic situationIn
terms of the Kingdom’s earthquake risk, its three largest cities (Amman, Zarqa,
and Irbid) are all located within 30km of its main source of seismic activity,
the Jordan Dead Sea Transform Fault.
These
cities house more than 80 percent of the country’s population, according to the
Jordan National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategy 2019-2022, which
identified earthquakes as its top preventative priority.
The
UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction states that Amman was last drastically effected
by a destructive quake on July 11, 1927. The epicenter of the 6.3-magnitude earthquake was estimated to be in Jordan Valley, near the present Damya bridge.
While
that earthquake resulted in 342 deaths, damages and casualties in Amman itself
were minor. This is the strongest earthquake in Amman in recent history.
In
terms of the Kingdom as a whole, the 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake was the most
recent major seismic event, with an epicenter located around 90km south of
Aqaba, according to the DRR.
No
deaths were reported from this earthquake, which was strongly felt as far as
the north of the Kingdom.
According
to the Jordanian Seismological Observatory, 20 to 50 earthquakes of a magnitude of four and above occur every year along the Dead Sea fault. These are
considered small earthquakes.
The
recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, Torzi said, will not affect the activation
of the Dead Sea fault, because the tectonic systems in each zone are unique and
completely separate.
Fears
and rumorsSociologist
Hussein Khuzaie said that fear and rumors about earthquakes are currently
spreading in Jordan largely because of the scale of destruction and the great
losses resulting from the earthquake in Turkey.
The
circulation of pictures and videos of rescue operations, children buried under
rubble, and deaths and injuries, has contributed to the panic, he told Jordan
News.
A
better tactic is to start preparing educational programs about earthquake
safety and focus on social solidarity and voluntary work to address areas
vulnerable to earthquakes, he said.
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