In major political crises, events cannot be viewed in isolation from their broader context or the intricate web of connections surrounding them. The case of MP Hassan Al-Ryiati—who was recently seen exiting a property affiliated with the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood in Aqaba carrying a bag of unknown contents, followed by his brief detention—was not merely an isolated incident. Rather, it opened the door to deeper questions about the future of the political scene and the possible courses of action the state might take to restore internal balance.
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Public speculation extended beyond the incident itself, with some proposing far-reaching political scenarios. Among these are the possible dissolution of the House of Representatives—a traditional option the state has previously used to reshuffle the political deck and absorb public discontent. Others have speculated that the Islamic Action Front Party, the former political arm of the Brotherhood and the last remaining organized umbrella for the outlawed Islamist movement, could become the next target.
However, in my view, there are currently no official indications or statements suggesting an immediate intention to dissolve Parliament. Still, monitoring recent developments reveals that this scenario remains alive in the background of political decision-making.
Growing tensions within Parliament, rising public dissatisfaction with its performance, and the involvement of certain MPs in security-related or political and social misconduct are all factors that make such a move more plausible—particularly if the Ryiati case reveals larger issues or implicates other parliamentary figures.
On the other hand, the decision to dissolve Parliament cannot be made without weighing several critical considerations, including the current political, economic, and security landscape. Holding early parliamentary elections requires the presence of a viable political alternative, an economic environment capable of supporting the process without exacerbating tensions, and security institutions that can manage the situation amid pressing regional challenges.
As for the Islamic Action Front Party, its situation is different—both legally and politically. The party has been a legally licensed entity, organizationally separate from the Muslim Brotherhood since 2015. It cannot be legally dissolved unless it commits proven violations warranting such action under the Political Parties Law. Since the location of the incident is affiliated with the banned Brotherhood and not the party itself, the direct legal impact on the party appears limited for now.
However, politically, the coming period may see increased restrictions or stricter oversight of the party’s activities. There may even be hints of administrative or legal action if it is found to be involved in unlicensed activities or covert organizational links. This is within the state's rights, as it seeks to maintain a balanced political landscape—particularly when it comes to political Islam—by curbing violations and preventing misuse of the public sphere, while also preserving a reasonable degree of political plurality in the eyes of the international community.
In conclusion, we seem to be heading toward a decisive transitional phase—one that could involve redefining the relationship with Islamist movements, regulating the parliamentary landscape, and possibly reorganizing the partisan and electoral environment according to new approaches in line with regional and international developments. What started as a bag from a building in Aqaba may turn out to be the trigger for a broader series of decisions aimed at fortifying the internal front and restoring trust in the political system. Only the coming days will confirm whether this scenario unfolds or not.
