So prevalent have coups become in the Sahel region (the belt
that separates sub-Saharan from Saharan Africa) over the past few years that
there was an inevitability that another would take place this year. Yet the
downfall of Mohamed Bazoum, ex-president of Niger and a linchpin of Western
influence in a critical region, was still unexpected.
اضافة اعلان
The sudden removal of Bazoum eliminates the last reliable
Western partner in the Sahel, a region where weak states, climate change, and
militant groups have caused havoc. Sahel countries have suffered a series of
coups, and the long legacy of Western colonialism has proved to have resurgent
propaganda and motivational power. It is not merely in Niger where anti-French
slogans and protests have erupted; most of the region has faced the same
issues.
The specifics of the Niger coup are murky; the military
appears to have toppled Bazoum first, before deciding exactly what would happen
next.
Some of the swift responses – the imposition of sanctions by
the West African group ECOWAS and a no-fly zone over Niger – appear to have
caught the plotters by surprise. There are reflections of the same uncertainty
in other coups around the Sahel.
Yet they all point to a definite wave of coups and unrest
roiling the region over the past three years. There is clearly a broad attempt
to unsettle the existing Western-led order. Whether that attempt is coming solely
from one direction, or, more likely, it is a combination of jihadi activity,
Western errors, and external propaganda, there is only one winner from the
unrest – Russia.
Patterns and trajectories
Although the changes have taken place over several years,
the trajectory is remarkably clear.
To understand it, it is useful to imagine Niger as it
appears on a map, a landlocked country surrounded by Libya to the north, Chad
to the east, the continent’s giant Nigeria to the south, and Mali and Burkina
Faso to the west. With the exception of Nigeria, every one of those countries
has had anti-French demonstrations and pro-Russian involvement.
In Mali, a coup took place in 2020, with a second one the
following year. Then last year, after a decade of military operations in Mali,
France was forced to pull out of the country after falling out with the
government. The troops went next door to Niger. Now, the Nigeriens want them
out as well.
A similar story took place in Burkina Faso, bordering both
Mali and Niger. First a coup last year, followed by the exit of French troops a
few months ago. The Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries soon entered the
country.
The youthful Burkinabe president Ibrahim Traore gave an
impassioned speech at the Russia-Africa summit last week, in which he asked how
it was possible that a continent with such abundant resources as Africa
remained the world's poorest continent with “our heads of state crossing the
world to beg.” These questions, sincere though they are, play into Russia’s
narrative as an anti-imperial global power.
Wagner troops have also appeared in the Central African
Republic, just south of Chad. This week, the Central African Republic (CAR) is
holding a constitutional referendum that will scrap term limits and allow the
current president to remain in power. Wagner troops both protect that
president, Faustin-Archange Touadera, and have been drafted in to oversee
voting. Touadera was in St Petersburg for the Russia-Africa summit.
The exception is Chad – but even there, the Washington Post
reported in April that the US believes Russia is plotting to use the Wagner
Group to topple the government in N’Djamena.
Without appearing to try
These events are connected, but the precise point of
connection is unclear. The finger of blame is frequently pointed at Russia, but
if Moscow is behind the unrest, it has made the gain asymmetrically, using
propaganda and occasional military force to push at a door already opened by
other factors.
The coup is bringing to light an emerging rift in the Sahel,
between countries that could be characterized as anti-Western, and perhaps
pro-Russian, and others. Mali and Burkina Faso have been suspended from the
ECOWAS community, and both countries, run by military governments, have warned
they would consider any attempt to interfere in Niger as a declaration of war.
The result, for more than a week, has been a wary stalemate.
Yet it is Russia that, without appearing to try, will emerge
the winner of these skirmishes.
There were many reasons why Western countries were so
focused on maintaining stability in the Sahel (even, critics point out, at the
cost of ignoring the authoritarianism of many leaders). The Sahel has become
the latest staging post for those militant groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS pushed
out of the Middle East. Niger, with its border with Libya, has become a crucial
pathway for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa to reach the Mediterranean.
And, of course, as the countries of the Sahel become less
stable, as coups topple one leader after another, there is the fear of what
might happen if that instability were to reach the largest country in Africa,
Nigeria.
But the Sahelian publics are uninterested. It is to Russia,
as the flags fluttering above the heads of protestors in Niger demonstrates,
that people are turning, even without specific public promises from Moscow.
With anti-French and anti-Western feeling running so high,
Russia, with the legacy of the Soviet Union’s support for African independence
movements, and with periodic gestures like the cancelling of most African debt
to Russia last week, finds it easy to maintain popularity. The wave of coups
crashing over the Sahel is bringing unexpected benefits to Russia’s shores.
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