Even by its standards as one of the deadliest conflicts in history,
the current catastrophic escalations in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict looks
and feels different. The destruction, death toll, and displacement has
surpassed many escalations recorded in recent memory.
اضافة اعلان
A prelude of a new dusk
This might just, unfortunately, be the beginning; a prelude of a new
dusk, not just for this conflict, not even only for the region, but for the
whole world. This is because the volatile, multiparty developments seen over
the past few days are signaling some worrying geopolitical, sociopolitical, and
economic warning signs.
While many are labeling the Al-Aqsa Storm as a shocking, surprisingly
calculated operation, what is not surprising is both the compounded Israeli
response and the miscalculated responses, rhetoric, and actions taken by the
United States and Western Europe. Indeed, their blind support to Israel despite
its blind “retaliated” bombardment of Gaza – the largest open-air prison in the
world, is not unexpected.
Disregarded any implications on the region
However, the quickness with which they lent military support to Israel
and the inhumanness with which they cut humanitarian and development aid to the
Palestinians, let alone the continued messages of public support to Israel, including
via their official Arabic-speaking mediums, such as “USA bil Araby”, have all
unequivocally disregarded any implications on the region, including on their
partner Arab states.
The events that took place over the past few days have reshaped the Palestinian-Israeli conflict into a global one. What has thus far been atrocious is going to further worsen with the involvement of global powers. Israel wants, and has probably begun, to ethnically cleans Gazans. Is the West going to support and facilitate that? And as neighboring Arab states already asserted their outright rejection to hosting displaced Palestinians – in support of the Palestinians’ right to statehood, are China and Russia going to demonstrate any actual support on the ground?
Jordanians view the US as three times more influential in the Middle
East than Russia and China combinedWhat the West might have also disregarded is that the Middle East is
no longer a venue of unipolarity, as Russia and China have been increasingly
infiltrating public discussions, contributing to increasing their appeal and
influence in the region. For instance, a survey by NAMA Strategic Intelligence
Solutions and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung found that Jordanians view the United
States as three times more influential in the Middle East than Russia and China
combined. But when asked to think about their regional influence in 10 years,
that ratio becomes one to one.
China’s growing appeal: effective communication strategies
Much of Russia and China’s growing appeal can be attributed to their
effective communication strategies, managing to capitalize on what specifically
triggers Arab public opinion and spreading perceived favorable messaging. In
fact, while two-thirds of 1,997 Arabs, surveyed by MENAACTION, think their
countries are targeted by disinformation and propaganda disseminated by foreign
states, only 4 believe Russia is behind such content while no one mentioned
China.
“Russia supports Palestine”
Further, the West’s actions are inadvertently pushing many to wonder
who is supporting the Palestinians. Google Trends shows spiking interest in
understanding Russia and China’s stances in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Search queries for Russia doubled in Jordan following Israel’s response to the
Hamas attacks, with keywords such as “Russia supports Palestine” became
prevalent.
China and Russia are now handed a golden opportunity by the West to
pounce and capitalize on Arabs’ angry sentiments. A few weeks ago, Russia’s
Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to condemn the burning of the Quran in
Sweden, and he ensured to connote that with Western tenets such as freedom of
speech – a clearly calculated strategy grounded in leveraging moments and in
understanding what Arabs want to hear from foreign leaders.
All signs are pointing otherwise
Are the United States and Western Europe unaware of the implications
of their narrative and actions on Arab States and on Russia and China’s
aspirations in the region? The short answer is no. Are they intentionally
handing Russia and China open nets to score? Conventional wisdom would negate
that, but all signs are pointing otherwise. The ultimate question, therefore,
is why?
US policy analysts believe the US Government seeks to both enhance and to combine military support and funding to Israel and to Ukraine under one bill, perhaps to omni-balance internal pressures by the different camps in support of Israel and Ukraine.
US policy analysts believe the US Government seeks to both enhance and
to combine military support and funding to Israel and to Ukraine under one
bill, perhaps to omni-balance internal pressures by the different camps in
support of Israel and Ukraine.
Arab World is now at yet another crossroads
Nevertheless, the Arab World is now at yet another crossroads.
Long-term partners are turning a blind eye on the implications of their support
for Israel while Russia and China, whose intentions are vastly different than
what any of their pro-Arab rhetoric would entail, are seeking rapprochement.
Can they shift their alliances?
It is highly unlikely to see the West’s regional strategic partners,
such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt shift their alliances toward the Russia
and China camp. They might momentarily bandwagon or welcome positive
intentions, but they are aware of the fact that they would be politically,
economically, and militarily worse off, as neither Russia nor China are willing
or capable of providing support similar to what the US and Europe have for
decades.
Shifting alliances are improbable, but increased polarization and
growing public pressures on governments are highly possible. The positive
compatibility of Arab states’ foreign policies with their citizens’ views has
long been a source for internal stability. However, polarization and public
pressures are dangerously destabilizing in this context, especially since
foreign policy is a matter handled by heads of states, not governments.
The events that took place over the past few days have reshaped the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict into a global one. What has thus far been
atrocious is going to further worsen with the involvement of global powers.
Israel wants, and has probably begun, to ethnically cleans Gazans. Is the West
going to support and facilitate that? And as neighboring Arab states already
asserted their outright rejection to hosting displaced Palestinians – in
support of the Palestinians’ right to statehood, are China and Russia going to
demonstrate any actual support on the ground?
Mohammed Abu Dalhoum is the president of
MENAACTION and a senior research analyst at NAMA Strategic Intelligence
Solutions.
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