Because of major news happening today, no regularly-planned
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Amidst the flurry of news surrounding potential deals and
negotiations involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA),
and the United States, one critical player appears to have been overlooked:
Hamas. The recent large-scale attack by Hamas should not have caught us by
surprise, and I see it as a failure on my part for not anticipating such a
move. Several factors converge to explain why this attack was not only
foreseeable but almost inevitable.
اضافة اعلان
First, Saudi Arabia's involvement in negotiations was not just
on its behalf but represented the Islamic world as a whole. If Saudi Arabia, as
host of Mecca and Madina, had signed an agreement with Israel, it would have
implied that the Islamic world, in effect, had aligned itself with Israel. This
shift would have transformed the status of Jerusalem from being a Palestinian
cause to an Islamic one, subject to negotiation with external parties. In
response, Hamas had limited options for re-shifting the focus back to the
Palestinian struggle, and this large-scale attack was a means to that end.
In recent weeks, Israel has raised concerns about increased
weapons smuggling from Iran, even mentioning Jordan as a potential route for
weapons being smuggled to Palestinian resistance groups. This indicated that an
escalation was brewing, and while it might have been predicted, the sheer
magnitude of the operation likely caught many off guard.
The negotiations led by MBS had the potential to legitimize the
Palestinian Authority as the de facto representative of the Palestinians. If
the deal had gone through, Hamas could have been marginalized. Recent
statements from the Biden White House seemed to lend support to this potential
shift. This would have positioned the PA in the West Bank as a model for
Palestinians to follow, rather than the failed leadership and living conditions
they currently endure.
Second, the geopolitical implications for Iran were significant.
A Saudi-Israeli agreement would have made Iran a legitimate target. It's
plausible that Iran had a role in or would have benefited from Hamas's actions.
In this context, Hamas emerges as a strategic winner. In this
action they have thwarted the PA's potential ascent, but it also undermined
Iran's position and opened up opportunities for Egypt. Egypt, despite recent
negative publicity and allegations of corruption with a US Senator, now returns
to its role as a guarantor of stability, security, and peace between Gaza and
Israel. Consequently, any international players involved with mediation with
Gaza would need to engage with Egypt above all others.
In the short term, President Sisi may face unpopular and
difficult decisions ahead of an election. However, in the long run, this
development solidifies Egypt's position and reduces the scrutiny surrounding
foreign aid. Likewise, President Biden soon faces an election hounded by
the fall of Afghanistan, the ignored war in Karabakh, and the Ukrainian
counteroffensive. A Saudi-Israel deal would have been a real foreign policy
win.
In short, - and I know this is still all unfolding - any peace
deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel is unlikely. Iran and Hamas will continue
to operate without the burden of a perceived successful PA leadership. The
strategic winners are Hamas, Egypt, and Iran. The strategic losers are the
Biden administration, and the Netanyahu government (even if Israel later wins
tactically).
This
is a complex interplay of regional and international dynamics in what is a big
shift in this geopolitical landscape. In the days to come, the fall out will be
clearer.
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
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