After its rapid military advance last week, Azerbaijan is
set to establish full sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, the country’s
contested mountainous enclave that’s been under ethnic Armenian control for
three decades.
اضافة اعلان
With that dispute nearing a conclusion, Azerbaijan may now
move to resolve its next point of contention with Armenia: completion of the
so-called Nakhchivan (or Zangezur) corridor. But unlike Nagorno-Karabakh, a
carved-out corridor in Armenia’s south would have serious implications for the
region, rewriting the geopolitical map for Iran, Russia, Turkey – and
potentially even Israel.
In 2020, a Moscow-brokered ceasefire agreement ending the
44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteed “the
safety of transport links between the western regions of the Republic of
Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.” Control over the land link
would be managed by Armenian security forces as well as “the bodies of the
Border Guard Service of the FSB of Russia.”
Because the proposed corridor slices across Syunik Province,
the only portion of Armenia that borders Iran, Armenia could see its access to
the Iranian market jeopardized. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, would gain a
direct route not only to Nakhchivan, but also to NATO member Turkey, while Iran
would see its north semi-encircled by Turkic states.
Iran considers the project a Turkish-led conspiracy to
create a corridor linking NATO to the Turan steppe, the original home of the
Turkic people. Bringing NATO to its northern border would weaken Tehran’s
position in the South Caucasus, and pose an existential threat to Iran. That’s
why Iranian authorities have repeatedly said they won’t tolerate changes to
regional borders, calling the issue Iran’s “red line.”
Iran also worries that Israel could use recent developments
to strengthen its position in the strategically important region. Between 2016
and 2020, 69 percent of Azerbaijan’s major arms imports were from the Jewish
state, and rumors have long surfaced that Israel might use air bases in
Azerbaijan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Indeed, Iran knows that if the
Nakhchivan corridor is built, Tehran will become the second biggest loser of
the Karabakh conflict (behind Armenia).
Russia, meanwhile, is licking its own wounds from
Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the enclave –
deployed to the region as part of the 2020 ceasefire – Moscow was unable to
stop Azerbaijan’s advance or to prevent Armenian forces from disarming and
integrating into Azerbaijan.
In truth, Moscow’s commitment to Armenia has long been
suspect. Following Armenia’s defeat to Azerbaijan in 2020, it became clear that
the Kremlin wouldn’t defend Yerevan’s interests in Nagorno-Karabakh if it meant
jeopardizing Russia’s lucrative energy ties with Baku.
Consider the evidence. On September 20, several Russian
troops – including a senior commander – were killed during an Azerbaijani
“anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Kremlin said nothing. Three
years earlier, during the second Karabakh war, the Azerbaijani army shot down a
Russian Mi-24 military helicopter over Armenia, killing two crew members.
Again, Moscow stayed silent.
Armenia, aware that it cannot count on Moscow’s support, has
sought to distance itself from Russia and normalize relations not only with its
archenemy, Azerbaijan, but also with Turkey.
Additionally, Armenia is working to establish political,
economic, and military ties with the United States, hoping that doing so will
strengthen its position in the region. The two sides recently held a joint
military exercise, further evidence that the Kremlin will have difficulty
keeping Armenia within its sphere of influence.
Thus, as a result of Azerbaijan’s recent victory in
Nagorno-Karabakh, the West and Turkey could eventually crowd Russia out of the
South Caucasus, making the Kremlin the third-biggest loser. Bogged down in
Ukraine, Moscow seems unable to preserve its hold on Armenia, a former Soviet
state whose people are in desperate need of outside support.
The end of the Karabakh conflict will be the start of a new
turbulent era in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan will almost certainly continue
to develop close defense cooperation with Israel and Turkey, while Armenia may
attempt to diversify its arms imports, end its dependence on Moscow, and
bolster military ties with the US, Iran, and perhaps even India.
In other words, while one conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia may soon be settled, a far more consequential one – the fight over the
Nakhchivan corridor – is just getting
started.
Nikola Mikovic is a
political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of
Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and pipeline
politics. X: @nikola_mikovic
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