It is often said that
historians are the worst when it comes to predicting the future; in any case,
looking at the near future, let alone the distance future, with confidence
requires gazing at a crystal ball which we do not have.
اضافة اعلان
The challenges for
the Arab Near East are further magnified by the nature of the region, known for
being highly volatile and for its dramatic shifts and turns of direction.
At the same time,
it is doubtful that the future of the Near East is sufficiently deterministic
for anyone to be able to predict it. However, one can confidently say that the
character of the region will continue to be shaped by the relationship between
its regimes and the outside forces, whether they will be working together or
independently toward common goals or at cross purposes.
It may be easier
to define what is likely to stay the same than speculate on what is likely to
change.
What comes to mind
immediately is that the concentration of the world’s financial wealth will stay
with a handful of Gulf-based sovereign funds, in countries where economic
structures will continue to be built and integrated in order to please their
citizens and guests, without having to worry about the need for public
participation in decision making or even democratization.
The historical role of the Near East as a transit route will not change; at the same time, one can also say, with much regret, that the festering wound of Palestine and Palestinian people will continue to bleed.
The historical
role of the Near East as a transit route will not change; at the same time, one
can also say, with much regret, that the festering wound of Palestine and
Palestinian people will continue to bleed.
Freedom of
expression remains a very sour point for the people of the region. Hardly
anyone who upheld this principle and struggled to defend it did not have a
brush with the authorities and got away with it.
The more that
people fall foul of the opinion of the various states in the region, the more
the number of individuals holding a grudge against the system will grow, but
the habitual modus operandi of governments in this region will continue to be
in accordance with the old Roman dictum “let them fear so long as they obey”.
Religious observance is very important for the
people of the region, just as it is beyond it, and this will always continue to
lead to the habitual friction over the implementation of religion-based laws.
However, even secularism in this part of the world has a religious dimension,
with so-called secular leaders supporting one religious doctrine or another, or
even one religious group or another, in an attempt usually to co-opt religion
in order to regulate it.
Governments in the
region are likely to remain as transient as the politicians who make them up;
the organization of governments will not vary from one head to another since
there will not be a true agreement on what powers different bureaucrats in the
region should have, how the borders among countries should be, and how
different groups ought to be represented, if at all.
Khairi Janbek is a former private adviser to HRH Prince El
Hassan bin Talal.
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