It is no longer possible to view
the disruptions affecting the global economy as temporary shocks that can be
contained through conventional monetary and fiscal tools, the world appears to
be entering a new phase of interlocking crises, in which wars overlap with
energy-market disruptions, rising economic protectionism, and intensifying
technological competition among the major powers.
اضافة اعلان
Rising energy prices are among
the main factors pushing the global economy toward slower growth and higher
inflation.
After oil prices began to decline relatively following the framework
agreement reached between the United States and Iran last June, they quickly
resumed their gradual rise as military operations restarted, the naval blockade
of Iranian ports was reimposed, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was
disrupted.
The strait is one of the world’s most strategically important routes
for global energy supplies.
Oil prices have consequently risen again amid
growing fears that the war could expand and become prolonged.
The US–Iranian agreement had
offered an opportunity, although a limited one, to halt the war, reopen trade
and energy routes, and begin more comprehensive negotiations.
However, the
agreement faced objections from the Israeli occupying state and reservations
from pro-Israel US lobbying groups across various American political
institutions, which criticised what they regarded as concessions to Iran.
This
contributed to obstructing the implementation of the agreement’s provisions,
narrowing the political space available for a settlement, and increasing the
likelihood of military escalation, as we are witnessing today.
The danger of these developments
lies in the fact that they have occurred at a time when international economic
institutions were already warning of weak global growth.
In its report issued
in June 2026, the World Bank projected that global growth would decline to
around 2.5 per cent this year, compared with approximately 2.9 per cent in
2025, while global inflation would rise to nearly 4 per cent. The report also
assumed that the most severe disruptions in energy markets would begin to ease
during July and the subsequent months of 2026.
The International Monetary Fund,
meanwhile, lowered its latest forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to
around 3 per cent and raised its estimate of global inflation to 4.7 per cent.
These forecasts were prepared before the latest
round of military escalation, the expansion of the blockade, and the disruption
of maritime navigation.
It is therefore likely that forthcoming reports will
point to a deeper slowdown, higher inflation, and greater pressure on public
budgets and people’s living standards.
The crisis is not confined to
energy and war, The economic conflict between the United States and China is
also becoming increasingly intense, particularly in the fields of artificial
intelligence, semiconductors, strategic minerals, and supply chains.
US is
using export restrictions on advanced chips and technologies, while China is
responding by accelerating the development of its domestic industries and
imposing restrictions on certain essential materials.
This conflict threatens
to divide the global digital economy into competing systems and to increase the
costs of investment, innovation, and trade.
We are therefore confronting a
crisis caused not by a single factor, but by the interaction of wars, energy
disruptions, protectionism, and technological competition.
Poor countries and
those dependent on imported energy and technology will be the most severely
affected, as higher fuel, food, and transport prices, along with the costs of
localising modern technologies, will directly deepen poverty, unemployment, and
debt.
Ending wars and easing tensions
among the major powers is therefore no longer merely a humanitarian and
political demand.
It has become an essential condition for protecting the
global economy and preventing it from moving from a phase of slowdown into widespread
stagflation.
