The debate between Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, and Netanyahu and his hardline peers like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, sums up the logic dominating the orientations of most of the Israeli right, not only toward the West Bank, but toward Jordan as well. The first camp sees the solution in a Jordanian role in governing the West Bank, what's traditionally known as the "Jordanian option." The second adopts annexation as the only option, and its logic inevitably leads to forced displacement, that is, the "alternative homeland."
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The two options fundamentally and essentially conflict with Jordan's historic position, which King Abdullah II expressed decisively in his latest speech at the United Nations. They also, of course, stand entirely opposed to the Palestinian position, and behind it Arab, Islamic, and international positions.
Jordan has never been in political confrontation with an Israeli government as it is today, at least since the signing of the "Wadi Araba" peace treaty. Until recently, politicians on both sides could manage a separate track for bilateral relations, even as positions diverged on the required solution for the Palestinian cause.
But such an approach began gradually and rapidly eroding with the major rise of extremist and fascist trends within the Israeli right. It has become categorically clear that bilateral relations with Jordan cannot be separated from the Palestinian cause file.
It's not only Jordan that cannot bear this separation, but Israel as well. Netanyahu's extremist government used the water card to pressure Jordan after October 7. And with each Jordanian position that angers Israel's ruling coalition, its figures in the government and Knesset, and even activists on social media, as happened after the King's UN speech, begin issuing threats to cut off water and gas to Jordan.
Jordan wouldn't have taken these strong and confrontational positions with Netanyahu's government had it not first calculated the resulting consequences.
On the water issue, perhaps the extremist supporters of the terrorist Ben-Gvir and Smotrich don't know that their government halted selling water to Jordan more than a year ago, and this hasn't affected Jordanians at all, after the government managed to secure alternative sources. What we're currently getting from Israel is our rightful share under the peace treaty. And there's no doubt Netanyahu's government knows full well that Jordan will achieve a major leap in water supply in less than four years, upon completion of the National Carrier and desalination project.
The same applies to the gas issue. The agreement with American companies investing in the "Mediterranean" fields is what benefits from gas sale contracts to Jordan and Egypt. In any case, within a few years Jordan will be able to increase its gas production to cover around 80% of its needs.
We present these details to say that bilateral relations, or what can be called mutual interests between states, will no longer be of great value to Jordan, and they apparently aren't of value to Israel's ruling right either.
It seems that some in Israel had illusions that Jordan could accept liquidationist solutions to the Palestinian cause in exchange for security guarantees and economic benefits.
The future of Jordanian Israeli relations is tied to the final resolution of the Palestinian cause. Bilateral relations cannot proceed normally without it. The right's reckless policies in the West Bank and its pursuit of annexation and displacement mean a threat to the security of Jordan and the region.
Israel must not ignore Jordan's interests, because the cost of its instability equals many times what happened on October 7.
