There is something Washington does not say outright, and that Tehran does not really want to admit publicly. Both are looking for a way out of the confrontation, but neither wants to appear to the world as the side that backed down. That is the real knot in the US-Iran conflict. Negotiations are moving behind closed doors, and statements speak of an end to the war, while the tools of pressure and threat remain present on the scene.
اضافة اعلان
US President Donald Trump's remarks about positive momentum towards ending the conflict, following his talks with the Qatari prime minister, signal that the diplomatic track is still open. But his affirmation that the blockade will continue reveals that Washington has not actually moved into a phase of peace. It is still using its leverage to secure better negotiating terms. How can one speak of the end of the war while economic and military tools of confrontation remain in use?
Tehran, for its part, is trying to show that it has not exhausted its cards, and that it will not hand the United States a free political victory. Mohsen Rezaei's comments questioning the reality of the negotiations reflect the depth of mistrust between the two sides, and confirm that the road to a final agreement is still full of obstacles.
The dilemma is that Washington wants guarantees concerning the nuclear programme, regional security and navigation, while Tehran wants an end to the blockade and economic pressure, and to keep its capacity to exert influence. These are not minor disagreements that can be overcome with a diplomatic statement. They touch the core of the balance of power between the two countries.
Qatari mediation carries exceptional importance, because it operates in a space where the parties need a channel of communication that saves face and opens a window for understanding. But the success of mediation is not measured by the number of contacts and statements. It is measured by its ability to turn understandings into clear, enforceable commitments.
For Jordan and the Gulf states, the continuation of this situation calls for careful calculation. The security of the Strait of Hormuz, the stability of energy markets and the safety of navigation are not distant issues from our national interests. Any collapse of the diplomatic track could drag the region back into a confrontation that goes beyond the limits of Iran and the United States, and make the region's states pay the political, economic and security price.
In my view, Washington and Tehran are not yet seeking a lasting peace so much as a settlement that protects their interests and prevents greater losses. The halt to large-scale military operations may be the start of a political shift, but it is not sufficient evidence that the conflict is over. The blockade, opposing positions and the absence of a binding agreement mean the causes of the confrontation still exist.
The scene does not say the war is over. It says both sides are trying to reshape its outcomes at the negotiating table, because the question that will determine the region's future is not who won the last round, but who can impose the terms of the next phase without igniting the round after it.
