The Qatari mediator, with Gulf authorisation, has not stopped his efforts to reach a temporary agreement between Washington and Tehran that would spare the region another round of fighting. Media sources close to the Qatari mediator say Washington has approved a draft memorandum of understanding that he presented to Iran two days ago, while Iran's leadership has made comments on it.
اضافة اعلان
A "step for step" agreement follows the same methodology as earlier mediation efforts, which ended in memoranda of understanding that held for only a few days before both sides returned to fighting. Brief skirmishes followed, the most recent of which was the day before yesterday, when American aircraft attacked what Trump said were newly established air defence platforms.
Between optimism and pessimism about an imminent agreement that could lead to comprehensive negotiations on all issues, observers and politicians around the world remain uncertain about what to expect in these days.
Trump, who suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm congressional elections, appears from his statements to be torn between options. He wants a political victory at the lowest possible cost, while at the same time fearing the consequences of an agreement with Tehran that does not meet Washington's conditions.
Netanyahu's Israel is also a strong presence in the picture. After his electoral defeat, Netanyahu is betting on a swift war against Iran that would turn the tables in Israel and give him a chance to remain in office at the head of a national unity government.
There is also concern that Trump has nothing left to lose after the Republicans' defeat in the midterms, and may gamble on war to make up for any political losses.
The countries of the region, led by the Gulf states, understand the dire consequences of the military option. Iran threatens an unlimited response with no red lines, meaning strikes on energy facilities and infrastructure in neighbouring countries.
The losses suffered by the Gulf states have exceeded expectations, and if this terrible scenario were to happen, it would be a catastrophe for the countries of the region and the world.
Trump may genuinely be torn between the conflicting interests of two allies, Israel and the Gulf states. That is why he has left the door open to Qatari mediation, which coincides with the end of an exhausting election season in America, while continuing to build up his forces in the region and giving Israel the green light to prepare militarily for a joint attack should the diplomatic solution fail.
Few analysts following American affairs bet on negotiations leading to a comprehensive agreement with Tehran. Based on experience with a stalled diplomatic process, the more likely outcome is a short-term agreement that collapses after one or two rounds of negotiations, either because of Tehran's hardline positions or the disruptive role of Netanyahu, who aspires to a decisive war, even if he has to resort to nuclear weapons to strike the Fars mountains facility, as Tucker Carlson claimed in what he described as the most dangerous leak yet about Trump and Netanyahu's conversations.
In this Iran crisis, in which we have experienced every kind of war and diplomacy, a third option emerges amid the uncertainty we live in: the status quo, meaning the continuation of a state of neither war nor peace for an indefinite period.
American media reports say Trump received advice to this effect from the Director of National Intelligence. It may be the most suitable alternative for the US administration, avoiding both the political cost of a humiliating deal with Tehran and a failed military adventure.
For the Middle East, that option is as harmful as the option of war.
