A company may
double its output without hiring a single additional worker. A service provider
may deliver its services with half its staff. By the measure of efficiency,
this looks like an achievement. Yet it raises a broader development question:
how does higher productivity translate into more jobs and better incomes? In
the Global South, including Jordan, where labour markets struggle to absorb
growing numbers of young people, this question is central to assessing the
effects of technological change.
اضافة اعلان
Artificial
intelligence offers considerable potential to improve medical diagnosis and
education, advance industry, agriculture and transport, reduce waste, and make
decisions faster and more accurate. Access to technology, however, does not
mean having the conditions needed to benefit from it. Effective adoption
requires quality education, a skilled workforce, modern production equipment,
adequate digital infrastructure and access to finance. This is where the gap
between economies begins.
Economies in
the Global North enjoy a clear advantage in these areas, alongside their
ownership and development of much of the technology. Some emerging economies
can narrow the gap through their industrial bases and investments in education.
Less developed countries, meanwhile, may remain consumers of imported
technology services without building comparable productive capacity. A research
paper recently published by the International Monetary Fund suggests that
potential growth gains in advanced economies could exceed twice those of
low-income countries.
This divide
also extends within societies. Large firms, owners of capital and highly
skilled workers are better placed to capture the returns, while small
businesses and less skilled workers face greater competitive pressure and the
prospect of declining demand for some of the tasks they perform. The transition
to new jobs does not happen automatically. It requires training, time and
income support to protect workers during the adjustment. When education systems
award qualifications without developing analytical skills or the ability to
learn and adapt, they widen the distance between graduation and decent work.
The challenge
grows as more young people enter the labour market. According to World Bank
estimates, around 1.2 billion young people in developing countries will reach
working age over the next 10 to 15 years, while only about 400 million jobs are
expected to be created. AI did not create this gap, but its ability to replace
certain tasks could make it harder to close, particularly if labour
displacement outpaces job creation.
The paradox
is that responding to these challenges requires greater public spending on
education, training, health and social protection, while financing costs and
debt servicing drain the resources of indebted countries. Pressures intensify
when such spending is constrained to meet short- and medium-term fiscal targets
under IMF-supported “reform” programmes. Some of these programmes include
social spending floors, but their existence does not guarantee adequate funding
or coverage. Fiscal and monetary stability are essential, and their
contribution to development is stronger when they protect societies.
Under these
conditions, AI is likely, in the short and medium term, to deepen inequalities
between North and South and between social classes within countries. Changing
this trajectory requires safeguarding education and social protection budgets
and linking them to clear, measurable objectives backed by accountability.
It also
requires international cooperation to address debt burdens and borrowing costs,
beginning with coordination among debtor countries to strengthen their
bargaining power with creditors. Alongside this, countries need to coordinate
tax policies to curb competition for investment through exemptions that
undermine their ability to collect a fair share of corporate profits in tax.
Technology
opens up new possibilities. Policy determines how widely its benefits are
shared. Without public resources to protect people and equip them with the
skills they need, our societies will struggle to keep pace.
