Whenever the region believes that the specter of war is receding, Washington reaffirms that the military option has never been off the table, as the recent leaks reveal discussions within the White House about resuming the war on Iran do not suggest that peace is closer, but rather reveals that diplomacy itself has become part of the pressure game, and that the war has not been canceled, but postponed for a while.
اضافة اعلان
US President Donald Trump, according to US media, listened to broad military options presented by his senior commanders, but at this stage he chose to give the negotiations a new chance, but this decision should not be interpreted as a radical shift in the US position, as the US administration still views force as the last card if policy fails to achieve its goals.
On the other hand, Tehran is aware that Washington does not want to slide into an open war, not out of love for peace, but because the cost of confrontation is higher than ever, as a new war will not remain confined between the United States and Iran, but may quickly spread to the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, threatening the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and pushing the global economy into a new wave of turmoil.
For this reason, it seems that the two sides are moving according to a precise equation: calculated escalation prevents the opponent from feeling victorious, and a temporary calm prevents the big explosion, because it is a game of brinkmanship, where everyone approaches the fire without anyone wanting to fall into it.
But the problem with this type of crisis is that wars do not always start with a clear political decision, but may erupt due to a military incident, a miscalculation, or a misunderstanding of a message on the ground, and when warships are piled up in the Gulf, planes remain on alert, and missiles move on both sides of the confrontation, the line between deterrence and war becomes thinner than ever.
What is also striking is that Washington is talking about giving diplomacy more time, while continuing to prepare military options, and Tehran, for its part, affirms its adherence to negotiations, but at the same time refuses to make concessions that affect its influence or its nuclear program.
Trump may be convinced that postponing the war gives him an opportunity to make political and diplomatic gains, but he also understands that the failure of the negotiations will bring him back to the same point, perhaps in more complex circumstances.
The Middle East is more of a truce than a peace, and a truce is inherently liable to collapse at the first real test, so the question is no longer whether war is an option, but whether diplomacy can prevent it before the sound of the guns precedes the voice of the negotiators.
So far, Trump appears to have chosen to postpone the confrontation, but postponement is not a cancellation, and the time given to diplomacy may also be a last resort before the region returns to the spiral of fire again.
