Lebanon is facing a great danger, i.e., the danger of civil war between the Lebanese components, the state and the army, and this danger is added to the danger of the Israeli presence and hints about a possible Syrian role in intervening in Syria.
اضافة اعلان
This country is on the brink of a volcano, whenever a crisis is extinguished, a second crisis breaks out, and it has been paying the price for the presence of Arab and foreign powers on its territory for decades.
It is not possible to bet on an internal Lebanese consensus to solve all these crises, and if there was a consensus, official Lebanon would not have signed an agreement with Israel, which effectively means the continuation of the Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon, the displacement of the people of the south, and the disarming of Hezbollah, which will lead to the spark of a military conflict inside Lebanon, between the party, the Shiite community, and the rest of the Lebanese components, especially if there are confrontations in the streets, as happened on Sunday night in Beirut.
This is a dangerous division within Lebanon, the party is fighting a war with Israel, and the state is negotiating with Israel, as if we are facing very opposing leakers.
The division is not at the level of the military forces, i.e. the army and the party, but extends to the political representation in the government, parliament, parties and Lebanese forces that, ironically, represent Washington, Paris or Tel Aviv, but at the same time condemn what they see as Hezbollah's representation of Iran.
The irony is also that the Lebanese forces that secretly support Israel see the Syrian regime's intervention in Lebanon as something needed to get rid of Hezbollah, the same forces that opposed the Syrian intervention in Lebanon during the time of Hafez al-Assad.
It does not yet seem that Hezbollah will respond to the official Beirut, because the agreement with Israel will be at its expense first, and the party is still in Iran's basic calculations, and it cannot cease its alliance with Tehran, especially that the Iranian file is still open, and the possibilities of a return to the war are possible, albeit partially, just as Iran's allies in Iraq and Yemen are under the threat of war, which means that the moment that governs the calculations is regional and international, and not only local and Lebanese, and will not It will be so soon, not far away.
This means that Lebanon is under the weight of 3 dangers, the first is the generation of a civil war against the background of the framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel, and there may be military confrontations or assassinations planned by Israel in Lebanon to ignite Lebanon from within, while the second danger is the continuation of the Israeli war on Lebanon, the continuation of the occupation of southern Lebanon, and perhaps expansion to Beirut and the north, and the third danger is to move the Syrian army, or jihadist groups in Syria and Lebanon, and to employ the human presence in Syria, to move against the Shiite community and Hezbollah, under the pretext of protection Sunnis, and punishing this sect for sectarian reasons.
Israel will not leave Lebanon alone, but the most dangerous of all possibilities is the outbreak of a civil war that will burn Lebanon from start to finish.
Lebanon is under the weight of 3 wars, Lebanese, Israel, and Syria.
