After eight years of crushing civil
war in Yemen, where hundreds of thousands of people have died of violence and
hunger, a new round of talks this week has raised a glimmer of hope for a
breakthrough in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
اضافة اعلان
The difference between these negotiations
and those of years past is not on the battlefield — and some analysts fear the
talks could simply usher in a different phase of a complex conflict. Instead,
the factor drawing attention is a surprise rapprochement last month between two
regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
For years, the rivals fed a proxy conflict
that worsened the war, which has led to the deaths of more than 350,000 people,
many of them from hunger, in what was already the poorest country in the
region. But the recent talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia have created
optimism.
Fighting in Yemen has remained relatively
quiet in recent months, although a truce lapsed in October. The parties have
engaged in peace talks mediated by neighboring Oman, but those meetings had
gone on without a clear end in sight until this month.
Hans Grundberg, the United Nations envoy
for Yemen, told the Associated Press on Sunday that now is “the closest Yemen
has been to real progress towards lasting peace”.
Here is what we know about the talks this
week.
Who is at the talks?The negotiations in Yemen’s capital, Sana,
bring together Saudi Arabia — which leads a military coalition that intervened in
Yemen in 2015 — and the Houthis, Iran-backed rebels who control Yemen’s capital
and northwest.
“It is clear that an atmosphere of peace is hanging over the region, encouraging optimism and hope.”
The conflict began when Houthi fighters
swept through northern Yemen into Sana in 2014, displacing the internationally
recognized government. The Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 in an attempt
to restore that government.
On Sunday, the Houthi-run SABA news agency
released photographs of Omani and Saudi delegations meeting with Mahdi
Al-Mashat, head of the Houthis’ Supreme Political Council.
“It is clear that an atmosphere of peace is
hanging over the region, encouraging optimism and hope,” Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti,
a Houthi official, wrote on Twitter on Sunday.
Saudi delegations have visited Sana before,
but with Saudi Arabia and Iran agreeing to resume diplomatic relations, there
is new “momentum in the region”, said Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the
International Crisis Group.
Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen,
Mohammed bin Saeed Al-Jaber, said on Twitter that he had come to Sana for
discussions “to stabilize the truce and cease-fire” and “explore venues of
dialogue” that could reach a comprehensive political solution for the country.
Yemen’s presidential leadership council —
which oversees the internationally recognized government — has been essentially
excluded from them, said Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a nonresident scholar at the Middle
East Institute.
What are they trying to achieve?The immediate aims are basic. Negotiators
are seeking the reinstatement of a truce and a complete withdrawal of foreign
forces from Yemen, Bukhaiti said.
The negotiators also want to pave the way
for broader talks to resolve Yemen’s multifaceted political conflict and repair
its demolished economy.
An agreement would most likely involve
Saudi Arabia convincing its allied Yemeni government to facilitate salary
payments for Yemeni civil servants, who have gone uncompensated for years and
are often their families’ main breadwinners. That would lift a burden on
humanitarian aid agencies, which are struggling to serve millions of hungry
Yemenis in desperate need of food.
About 24 million people — 80 percent of Yemen’s population — are in need of humanitarian aid, according to the United Nations, and millions of people have been displaced.
A deal could also open more flights from
the Sana airport, allowing thousands of people to travel for lifesaving medical
treatment, and lift restrictions on ports, making more essential goods
available and easing inflation. It might also allow the resumption of Yemeni
oil exports.
How bad is Yemen’s humanitarian
situation?Even before the war, Yemen was the poorest
Arab country. But the conflict mired the Yemenis into one of the world’s worst
humanitarian crises and pushed the country to the brink of famine.
About 24 million people — 80 percent of
Yemen’s population — are in need of humanitarian aid, according to the United
Nations, and millions of people have been displaced.
Deaths, particularly from hunger, have
overwhelmingly affected young children. More than 11,000 children have now been
killed or maimed as a result of the conflict in Yemen, according to a United
Nations estimate. UN officials say the true toll is likely to be much higher.
Why does the détente between Saudi
Arabia and Iran matter?Although the war involves more than just a
proxy conflict, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran — which has been
repeatedly accused of providing weapons to the Houthis — have played a major
role. Now, Saudi Arabia is cultivating closer ties with Iran in a push to ease
regional tensions.
“Both Riyadh and Tehran are keen to prove
that their diplomatic efforts were instrumental in bringing calmness to Yemen,”
Nagi said. “They want to succeed in this endeavor.”
Although the war involves more than just a proxy conflict, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran — which has been repeatedly accused of providing weapons to the Houthis — have played a major role. Now, Saudi Arabia is cultivating closer ties with Iran in a push to ease regional tensions.
Saudi officials are eager to end their
military involvement in Yemen, which has been expensive. Beyond that, Houthi
missile and drone strikes over Saudi Arabia’s southern border have killed
several dozen civilians and damaged infrastructure.
Will these talks end Yemen’s conflict?As welcome as a resolution would be to
Yemenis, the talks are unlikely to lead to peace and prosperity. Yemeni
analysts say that without genuine support within the country, among the Yemenis
themselves, a political resolution cannot take root.
Beyond the direct violence of the war,
Yemenis are grappling with an economy in shambles and the structural violence
caused by corruption, fractured communities, and multiple armed groups vying
for power. There are rivals even among basic institutions, including two
central banks and separately managed currencies, raising questions about how —
and with which bank notes — civil servants would be paid.
“It seems the Saudis are in a rush to reach
a deal without giving much time to discuss these important details, which could
create significant divisions later on,” Nagi said.
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