The Phenix Center for Economic and Informatics Studies has issued a new report entitled “Assessing the Food Security Implications of the U.S.–Israeli War against Iran.” The report examines the impacts of the war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in energy, fertilizer, and maritime transport markets on food systems at the global and regional levels, with a special focus on the Arab region as one of the most food-import-dependent regions in the world.
اضافة اعلان
In its report, the Center noted that, although the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding is expected to open a path toward de-escalation, and although the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has begun, carrying initial positive indications of the possible restoration of part of maritime traffic and trade, the risks associated with the war have not yet come to an end. The effects of the previous closure of the Strait, the continued lack of clarity in the negotiations between the United States and Iran, the persistence of potential flashpoints in the region, and Israeli efforts to obstruct the negotiation process or keep the region in a state of tension remain serious sources of risk for food security, energy markets, and international trade.
The report emphasized that the significance of the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lies in the fact that it is a necessary step toward easing pressures on oil, gas, shipping, and fertilizer markets, and restoring part of the confidence in global supply chains. However, the Center stressed that reopening the Strait alone is not sufficient to eliminate the risks unless it is accompanied by political and security guarantees that ensure the stability of navigation, prevent a return to closure or disruption of vessel movement, and reduce the likelihood of military escalation or the targeting of vital maritime routes and infrastructure.
The report explained that the war threatens food security not only through the possible direct decline in agricultural production, but primarily through the disruption of the interconnected systems on which the modern global food system depends. Today, food is closely linked to energy prices, fertilizer availability, the stability of shipping routes, insurance costs, exchange rates, and governments’ ability to finance subsidies, strategic reserves, and social protection programmes. Accordingly, any disruption in one of these components can quickly spread across the various links of the food supply chain, from production to transport, storage, processing, distribution, and consumption.
The report indicated that the Strait of Hormuz occupies a central position in this crisis, as one of the world’s most important strategic maritime chokepoints. Massive volumes of oil pass through it daily, in addition to a significant share of fertilizer and agricultural input trade, including urea, ammonia, sulphur, and phosphate products. Therefore, the closure of the Strait or the disruption of navigation through it affects not only energy markets, but also the cost of agricultural production and the availability of essential inputs for farmers around the world.
The report identified five main channels through which the effects of the war are transmitted to food security. The first is the rise in energy prices, which increases the cost of operating agricultural machinery, irrigation, transport, refrigeration, processing, and storage. The second relates to disruptions in fertilizer production and trade, particularly nitrogen fertilizers, which depend on natural gas as both a feedstock and an energy source. The third is the disruption of maritime transport, accompanied by higher freight and insurance costs and delays in the arrival of goods and agricultural inputs. The fourth concerns inflationary pressures and exchange-rate fluctuations, especially in countries that import food priced in U.S. dollars. The fifth is the growing fiscal pressure on governments seeking to maintain food subsidies, expand social protection, and strengthen strategic reserves amid rising import bills.
The Phenix Center pointed out that the Arab region is among the most exposed regions to this shock due to its structural dependence on imports of food, cereals, vegetable oils, animal feed, fertilizers, and agricultural inputs. This vulnerability is rooted in accumulated factors, including water scarcity, limited arable land, population pressure, climate change, weak agricultural productivity, and extensive reliance on international markets. The report notes that around 65 percent of cereal consumption in Arab countries is secured through imports, making the region highly sensitive to increases in energy, shipping, fertilizer, and food commodity prices.
The report further noted that the level of risk varies within the Arab region. Gulf countries possess financial resources, strategic reserves, and institutional capacities that help them absorb short-term shocks, yet they remain heavily dependent on imported food, maritime routes, and energy-intensive desalination systems. Mashreq countries, such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine, face compound risks resulting from import dependence, water scarcity, fiscal pressures, and declining purchasing power. In North Africa, countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya are affected to varying degrees by rising costs of cereals, energy, fertilizers, and transport.
The report warned that fragile Arab states and those affected by conflicts and occupation, such as Yemen, Sudan, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria, face the most severe risks. In these contexts, the war does not create a food crisis from scratch; rather, it deepens pre-existing crises caused by displacement, weak institutions, collapsing services, declining purchasing power, and shrinking humanitarian funding. Rising fuel and transport prices also increase the cost of delivering food assistance to the most vulnerable groups.
The report concluded that the duration of the crisis will be the decisive factor in determining the depth of its impact. Short-term disruptions may raise prices and increase the costs of energy, shipping, and fertilizers, but they may remain containable. However, if the crisis continues for several months or across more than one agricultural season, it could turn into a deeper food shock, leading to reduced fertilizer use, declining crop productivity, and sustained increases in food prices.
The Phenix Center called for the adoption of multi-level responses, including diversifying sources of food and fertilizer imports, expanding strategic reserves, strengthening social protection systems that can be scaled up during crises, developing Arab cooperation in managing reserves and supply chains, investing in climate-smart agriculture and water-saving irrigation technologies, reducing food loss and waste, supporting small farmers, and strengthening early warning and market monitoring systems. The Center also stressed that stable navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the consolidation of its gradual reopening are essential conditions for easing current pressures on food, energy, and international trade.
