In what has been described as the toughest move since the start of the war in Ukraine, the United States on October 22, 2025, imposed direct sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, sparking turmoil in global energy markets and raising fears of a new supply crisis that could affect both major and emerging economies.
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Russia’s oil exports — estimated at 7.3 million barrels per day, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) — account for about 7% of global oil and refined product consumption. With both companies added to the U.S. sanctions blacklist, most entities that ship Russian oil abroad now face the threat of similar penalties, disrupting supply chains and forcing international companies to rethink their dealings with Moscow.
Washington Targets the Heart of Russia’s Energy Sector
The U.S. Department of the Treasury said the sanctions were in response to “President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on continuing the war in Ukraine,” aiming to drain Russia’s financial resources by curbing its oil and gas revenues, which make up nearly a quarter of the federal budget.
The measures prohibit all U.S. entities and residents from conducting business with Rosneft, Lukoil, or any company in which they hold more than a 50% stake. Foreign firms are also required to wind down transactions with sanctioned Russian entities by November 21.
The move was coordinated with Europe. On October 23, the European Union announced a parallel ban on dealings with Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, further deepening Russia’s isolation in the global energy market. Analysts at Bloomberg described the new measures as “a major policy shift from managing sanctions to directly strangling Russian energy exports.”
Immediate Shockwaves in Global Markets
Following the announcement, oil prices surged by more than 5% in Asian markets, with Brent crude futures climbing above $64 per barrel, amid expectations that the disruption of Russian supplies would increase pressure on Middle Eastern and African producers to fill the gap.
India and China, Russia’s two largest oil buyers — jointly importing about 3.6 million barrels per day — found themselves in a delicate position. Indian refiners announced plans to halt most Russian crude purchases in compliance with U.S. restrictions, while China adopted a cautious stance amid a slowing economy and high stockpiles.
If both countries scale back purchases, Moscow faces a daunting challenge in finding alternative customers, potentially forcing it to offer deep discounts to African buyers or resort to unofficial trade channels.
The “Organized Evasion” Strategy
Historically, Russia has shown remarkable adaptability in circumventing sanctions. After measures imposed by former President Joe Biden’s administration in 2022, Moscow turned to a so-called “shadow fleet” — a network of aging tankers owned by obscure firms registered in offshore jurisdictions — to transport crude away from Western scrutiny.
It also established an alternative financial system relying on non-Western banks, especially in Asia, to settle oil deals. This allowed Russia to maintain maritime oil exports worth about $1.5 billion per week in October, according to Bloomberg data.
However, the new sanctions cut deeper, targeting the core operators of pipelines and export infrastructure, not just intermediaries or transport vessels, making the impact longer-lasting and more complex.
India and China Between Compliance and Interest
For India, which benefited over the past two years from discounted Russian crude, the new U.S. sanctions pose a serious dilemma. Major Indian refiners have reportedly told the government it is now legally and financially risky to continue importing Russian oil. Reports suggest that the Trump administration has threatened punitive tariffs on India over its dealings with Moscow, prompting New Delhi to consider reducing imports in exchange for trade concessions from Washington.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, is taking a calculatedly pragmatic approach. While maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia, Beijing appears unwilling to bear additional costs or banking risks. A slowing Chinese economy and weaker industrial demand are also making it more cautious about expanding purchases.
Global Ripple Effects
Energy experts believe the impact of these sanctions will extend far beyond Russia, potentially reshaping the structure of the global oil market. The tighter restrictions on Russian supply are expected to boost demand for Middle Eastern oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which stand to benefit most from Russia’s shrinking share in Asian markets.
Conversely, Russia may increasingly turn to barter trade or local-currency deals with partners in Asia and Africa as part of a broader “de-dollarization” strategy, a shift that could redefine global energy pricing in the coming years.
A New Phase of the “Energy War”
The latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil sector are not merely an economic measure — they are a geopolitical instrument aimed at reshaping power dynamics in the global energy landscape. While Washington seeks to choke Moscow’s revenues without triggering a price shock, Russia is betting on its commercial resilience and parallel networks to remain a major player.
The result: The world is entering a new phase of the “energy war” — where power is no longer measured by barrels alone, but by each nation’s ability to maneuver between politics and economics.
