Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recovering from a five-week low recorded the previous day, amid supply disruption fears following U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian crude oil.
اضافة اعلان
By 03:30 GMT, Brent crude futures were up by 43 cents (0.6%) to $68.07 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 40 cents (0.6%) to $65.56 per barrel.
Market Uncertainty Over U.S. Sanctions
Commodity strategists at ING stated last Thursday:
"There’s still a lot of uncertainty around whether the U.S. will implement secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil... and growing chatter in the market suggests attention could shift toward China’s Russian oil imports."
They added that if India halts its purchases due to tariff threats,
"The market could absorb the loss of that supply,"
but warned that the bigger risk would be if other buyers also begin to shun Russian crude.
Investor Sentiment and India's Role
Yuki Takashima, economist at Nomura Securities, commented:
“Investors are assessing whether India will reduce its Russian crude imports in response to Trump’s threats, which could tighten supply. However, it remains to be seen if that will actually happen.”
He added:
“If India’s imports remain stable, WTI is likely to stay within the $60–$70 range for the rest of the month.”
OPEC+ Production Boost
On Sunday, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase oil output by 547,000 barrels per day for September, a move that will end the latest round of production cuts earlier than planned.
OPEC+ produces about half of the world’s oil and has cut output for several years to support the market, but this year has seen a series of rapid production increases.
U.S. Pressure on India and Supply Risks
The U.S. is pressing India to halt Russian oil imports as Washington seeks leverage to pressure Moscow into a peace deal with Ukraine. Such moves may disrupt global supply flows as Indian refiners seek alternatives, and Russian crude gets redirected to new buyers.
On Tuesday, Trump again threatened higher tariffs on Indian goods over its oil trade with Russia, saying the move could come within 24 hours. He also suggested that lower energy prices could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
India Responds to Tariff Threats
New Delhi called Trump's threats “unwarranted” and vowed to protect its economic interests, further intensifying the trade dispute between the two countries.
U.S. Oil Inventory Data Supportive
Takashima of Nomura noted that U.S. oil inventory data—from the world’s largest oil consumer—provided support for oil prices.
According to figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) cited on Tuesday, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week. This is a much larger drop than the 600,000-barrel decline expected in a Reuters poll for the week ending August 1.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its official weekly inventory data on Wednesday.
