The United States is keeping the door open to negotiations with Iran while maintaining its pressure campaign and considering military options, as concerns grow that any escalation could affect maritime security and energy supplies across the region.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz said President Donald Trump is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon that could allow it to “hold the world hostage.” He reaffirmed the continuation of the maximum-pressure policy while leaving open the possibility of Tehran returning to negotiations if they are conducted “in good faith.”
Meanwhile, Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the best option for Washington would be to reach an agreement that ends the war with Iran. She said this would require intensive negotiations with governments that maintain channels of communication with Tehran.
Luna said expected talks between Trump and Chinese and Russian officials would address the war with Iran. She added that she would continue advising the president in support of a peaceful resolution, while the final decision on the course of negotiations and the war rests with Trump.
She also said communications over Iran had moved to a direct level between heads of state.
Security Warnings and Rising Tensions
The statements came as security warnings intensified. U.S. embassies in several countries across the region issued alerts, while Tehran said it had received intelligence indicating that Washington intended to resume military operations.
Former U.S. national security analyst Alex Plitsas said Trump held a security meeting at Camp David to discuss military options against the Houthis in Yemen before cutting short his stay and returning to the White House.
Iran’s unified military command, meanwhile, warned that any U.S. military action would be met with a response “without any restrictions or considerations” targeting U.S. bases and interests in the region.
Yemen Reshapes the Escalation Calculus
The developments are also linked to the situation in Yemen, where there had been indications in recent weeks of indirect contacts between the Trump administration and the Houthis aimed at establishing rules of engagement to protect maritime traffic. Developments along Yemen’s western coast, however, have altered the escalation calculus.
According to information cited in the report, the Houthis have made gains along a strategic stretch of Yemen’s western coastline extending from Hays and Al-Khokha to the port of Mokha and Mayyun Island near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Andreas Krieg, a professor of defense studies at King’s College London, linked the gains to the fragmentation of the anti-Houthi front and competing interests among local factions, which he said had allowed the group to make battlefield advances and complicated efforts to reduce tensions and reach a political settlement.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen and Gulf researcher at Chatham House, said the fall of Mokha reflects divisions among government forces alongside the Houthis’ military advances. He said control of Bab al-Mandab would represent a strategic gain for the group and Iran and could threaten international trade and energy supply routes through the Red Sea, potentially increasing shipping, insurance and fuel costs.
Oil Raises the Cost of Escalation
At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was targeted by drones and missiles allegedly launched by an Iran-aligned armed group from Iraq, according to the information cited in the report. The attacks reportedly led to a suspension of crude exports from Yanbu and the cancellation of oil shipments bound for Europe.
Ben Cahill, an energy researcher at the Atlantic Council, said attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure had reduced safety margins in global energy markets at a time when strategic inventories were declining. He said inflationary and economic pressures on the Trump administration could push Washington toward more decisive options to restore deterrence.
Military Options From Yemen to Iran
Among the scenarios under consideration is an expansion of military operations along the Yemeni coast aimed at weakening Houthi military capabilities around Bab al-Mandab.
Austrian defense adviser Wolfgang Postai said the operational risk lies in the Houthis’ ability to target vessels from close range using short-range missiles and artillery deployed along the western coast and on Mayyun Island. He said potential operations could target coastal missile batteries, radars, drone storage facilities and field command centers along the western coast, as well as sites in Sanaa and Saada.
A second potential course, according to the analysis cited in the report, involves strikes against targets inside Iran, including a facility referred to as “Jabal al-Fas,” as a means of pressuring Tehran over the activities of its regional allies.
Postai warned that direct strikes inside Iran could broaden the conflict, particularly if Tehran responded by targeting U.S. bases in Iraq and other countries in the region.
Iran Warns of a Wider War
Tehran has reiterated that any U.S. attack would trigger a broad response. Iran’s unified military command said any U.S. military action would be met with a response “without any restrictions or considerations” against American bases and interests in the Middle East.
An Iran affairs specialist said Tehran had previously reached regional security arrangements and understandings with Oman to manage navigation in the Strait of Hormuz while safeguarding the interests of countries in the region. He accused Washington of obstructing those arrangements.
According to the specialist, Tehran does not seek to impose unilateral dominance or use the strait against neighboring countries, but it would not allow the United States to reimpose a balance of power through military strikes. He warned that any attack could undermine de-escalation efforts and open the way to a broader confrontation.
In Iraq, the U.S. Embassy issued a security warning over the possibility of precision missile and drone attacks against U.S. bases and facilities in Iraq and Syria by Iran-linked factions.
Former British ambassador Nicholas Hopton warned that direct military intervention carries significant escalation risks. He said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps provides the Houthis with military and logistical support and training, while the group retains a degree of independence in its decision-making.
Hopton argued that Western airstrikes alone would not resolve the crisis and could instead widen the conflict.
Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and Energy Markets
An expansion of the confrontation poses direct risks to oil markets and maritime traffic, particularly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted at the same time as navigation through Bab al-Mandab is affected.
Some estimates cited in the report suggest that disruptions in both waterways could lead to shortages of crude and fuel supplies and push oil prices above $130 a barrel, with inflationary repercussions for Europe and global markets.
From a U.S. domestic perspective, a Yemeni specialist said the Houthis benefit from cohesive leadership and the ability to mobilize tens of thousands of people, while coordination among government forces and anti-Houthi factions remains weak.
He added that the group is counting on Trump’s reluctance to enter a ground war or become involved in a prolonged and costly conflict, particularly with the U.S. midterm elections approaching. However, threats to maritime traffic and energy supplies could prompt Washington to launch deterrent strikes aimed at restoring deterrence and easing pressure on key shipping routes.
Rising Humanitarian Costs
The risks of escalation extend beyond the military and economic spheres. United Nations estimates cited in the report indicate that more than 125,000 civilians have been displaced along Yemen’s western coast because of recent fighting, while thousands of families have been forced to travel by sea toward Djibouti and the Horn of Africa.
The developments have coincided with calls at the UN Security Council to ensure the safety of maritime navigation and protect civilians, amid warnings that expanded military operations could disrupt aid routes and vital ports and worsen the humanitarian and food-security situation.
The situation brings together diplomatic efforts, military pressure, developments on the ground in Yemen, and risks to shipping through Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz, making any new escalation capable of spreading to global energy markets and international trade.
Source: AFP + Agencies
