On the eve of
the 44th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, the republic of 87 million,
ruled by religious hardliners, finds itself facing the most serious domestic
crisis since 1979. For over four months, tens of thousands of Iranians, predominantly
the young, have taken to the streets demanding an end to the theocratic regime
that had that has grown disconnected from its people.
اضافة اعلان
Over 60 percent
of Iran’s population is under 30 years old and they are seeking an end to decades
of mismanagement of the country’s affairs, harsh treatment of women, foreign
adventures that have squandered Iran’s resources, and an end to everything that
the 87-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands for.
Khamenei has
ruled Iran with an iron fist for more than three decades, rejecting all calls
for reform and alienation moderate supporters of the regime. Previous public
uprisings were ruthlessly crushed and hundreds of dissidents were executed.
But the ongoing
protests, triggered by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in custody of
the morality police last September for allegedly wearing her headscarf
"improperly”, are relentless. Women protesters were joined by students,
laborers, merchants and professionals; all calling for structural reforms.
The regime’s
response, however, has been bloody.
More than 500 Iranians have been killed by
the Basij, a paramilitary militia force established to deal with local dissent.
But the crackdown did not work. Tens of thousands of protesters have been
arrested. At least four were executed following summary trials.
President
Ebrahim Raisi — a hardliner who sent hundreds to their deaths as a
revolutionary judge — has disregarded calls for economic reforms, dialogue, and
national reconciliation from former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan
Rouhani, former parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani, and even former Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps officers.
Over 60 percent of Iran’s population is under 30 years old and they are seeking an end to decades of mismanagement of the country’s affairs, harsh treatment of women, foreign adventures that have squandered Iran’s resources, and an end to everything that the 87-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands for.
But Raisi has
no alternative.
Rouhani had
earned Khamenei’s wrath when he appeared to adopt a moderate line as president.
So did Khatami whose calls for national reconciliation in 2017 were described
as “meaningless” by Khamenei.
So did the
supreme leader blink last week when he issued a conditional pardon that would
affect tens of thousands of those detained, many of them convicted, in the
protests?
Seeing as its conditions appear to exclude many — especially the young
men and women involved — and requires detainees to sign a declaration of
remorse, it is unlikely to stem the growing opposition to the regime due to a
lack of credibility.
The problem, as
well as the challenge, has to do with Khamenei himself, who has enjoyed unchallenged
authority as he surrounds himself with hardliners. In his view, the ongoing
protests, this time as before, are the product of a western conspiracy to
topple the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei's paranoia
and religious fundamentalism have clouded his judgment. And while he is still
in control, his reported poor health and lack of named successor pose
challenges to the regime.
The popular
uprising, now spread all throughout country, including in the
capital Tehran,
is unlikely to subside, it will not bring down the regime anytime soon.
In spite of
years of economic sanctions and feeble economic performance, now made worse by
a currency freefall, the regime is using its influence in Iraq to siphon off
much needed dollars at the expense of the Iraqi economy. It has used the war in
Ukraine to its benefit — for now — by bolstering a strategic alliance with
Moscow. And it is maintaining strong economic ties with China, with exports to
Beijing worth about $5 billion annually. In 2021 both countries signed a
25-year strategic cooperation agreement.
The problem, as well as the challenge, has to do with Khamenei himself, who has enjoyed unchallenged authority as he surrounds himself with hardliners. In his view, the ongoing protests, this time as before, are the product of a western conspiracy to topple the Islamic Republic.
Most of the
country’s resources go to develop its nuclear and long range missile program,
in addition its advanced drone system, as well as finance its proxies in Yemen,
Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Little is spent on civilian infrastructure and on
creating jobs where unemployment now stands at around 11 percent.
But change
could come from within the system itself.
As the protests
continue to drain the regime’s ability to manage the country, in the past few
days, two prominent
Iranian opposition figures have called publicly for
sweeping reforms. Long-detained former presidential candidate Mir Hossein
Mousavi has called for a nation-wide referendum on adopting a new constitution;
one that ends that unchallenged authority of the supreme leader. Former
president Khatami has also said he hoped that the use of “non-violent civil
methods” can “force the governing system to change its approach and accept reforms.”
This is a boost
to the popular uprising because it comes from people who know the system inside
out.
Khamenei, like
all authoritarian rulers, is likely to continue relying on hardline close aides
and use force instead of making concessions that could open the proverbial
floodgates for a regime that has never looked as shaky and as vulnerable.
On the other
hand, one factor could change all that and breathe life into a beleaguered
regime; an Israeli led strike against
Iran’s nuclear sites. The consequences of
such a cataclysmic event could very well backfire and give the regime a new
lease of life.
Osama
Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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